Injuries Are Already Wreaking Havoc On The NBA’s MVP Race

In theory, the NBA’s Most Valuable Player race is off to an incredible start.

Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has picked up right where he left off last year, averaging around 32 points, six assists and five rebounds per game. Luka Dončić currently leads the league in scoring with 34.6 points per game, and he’s chipping in 9.0 assists, 8.5 rebounds, 3.5 three-pointers and 1.9 steals for good measure. Nikola Jokić is averaging a triple-double while leading the league in both rebounds (13.2) and assists (11.1) per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists) and Victor Wembanyama (26.2 points, 12.9 rebounds and a league-high 3.6 blocks) are stuffing the stat sheet, too.

However, the MVP race took two major hits on Monday. First, the San Antonio Spurs announced that Wembanyama suffered a calf strain against the Golden State Warriors this past Friday. A source told ESPN’s Shams Charania that he will be re-evaluated in two to three weeks.

“Obviously, we’ve seen around this league recently, the calf-tightness thing is not something you want to take lightly,” Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson told reporters Sunday. “Don’t want to push it there.”

On Monday night, Antetokounmpo left the Milwaukee Bucks’ loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers early due to a groin strain. He’s expected to miss one to two weeks, per Charania.

Those injuries could knock one or both of Wembanyama and Antetokounmpo out of MVP consideration entirely if they’re sidelined longer than expected.

The NBA’s 65-Game Rule For MVP

The NBA’s latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a new requirement for certain league awards. To deter load management, players must now play in at least 65 games and play at least 20 minutes in 63 of them to be eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or the All-NBA teams.

Wembanyama played in each of the Spurs’ first 12 games of the season, but he’s already missed their past two. If he’s sidelined for a full three weeks, he’s poised to miss at least seven more games before potentially returning on Friday, Dec. 5 against the Cavaliers. He’d only be able to miss eight more games across the rest of the season before becoming ineligible for MVP.

The 65-game rule already came into play with Wembanyama last season. Heading into the All-Star break, he was the commanding favorite to win DPOY. However, the Spurs discovered a blood clot in his right shoulder and shut him down for the season, which had major leaguewide ripple effects. Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley wound up winning DPOY, which earned him an extra $45 million on his contract extension and sent the Cavs further into second-apron territory.

Antetokounmpo has already missed three games this season, including Thursday’s loss against the Philadelphia 76ers, and he played only 13 minutes against the Cavaliers on Monday before departing. The 65-game requirement does allow players to play fewer than 20 minutes in two games, so that should still count toward Antetokounmpo’s minimum, but it reduces his margin for error moving forward.

If the Greek Freak misses two weeks, he’d be out for Milwaukee’s next five games before returning on Monday, Dec. 1 against the Washington Wizards. He’d be able to miss only nine more games over the remainder of the season before becoming ineligible for MVP, DPOY or the All-NBA teams as well.

Considering how well Gilgeous-Alexander, Dončić and Jokić are playing over the first month of the season, Antetokounmpo and Wembanyama might have a tough time toppling them even if they remain eligible for MVP. Number of games and total minutes played tends to be a tiebreaker in ultra-close MVP races—just ask Joel Embiid—as well as individual performance and team record. But if they fall short of the 65-game threshold, the MVP race might not be quite as stacked as it originally appeared.

Other Awards In Danger, Too

The 65-game requirement might not only wreak havoc on the MVP race. A select few players are already in danger of missing out on All-NBA consideration, too.

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams, who earned his first All-NBA nod last season, has already missed 16 games this year as he recovers from offseason wrist surgery. If he misses two more games, he’ll be ineligible to earn another All-NBA nod, which will have enormous financial ramifications for him.

Williams signed a five-year max extension this past summer that contained escalator language. If he makes first-team All-NBA or wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, his new deal would start at 30% of the 2026-27 salary cap instead of 25%. Based on the current cap projection of $166 million, a 25% max would start at $41.5 million and be worth $240.7 million in total, while a 30% max would start at $49.8 million and be worth $288.8 million in total.

He isn’t the only notable player who’s likely to be ineligible for the All-NBA teams this year. LeBron James, who has 21 straight All-NBA nods and counting, is in grave danger of seeing that streak snap this year.

James missed the Lakers’ first 14 games this year due to sciatica on his right side. He made his season debut Tuesday against the Utah Jazz, but he can now miss only three more games over the Lakers’ final 67 to remain eligible for All-NBA. With James turning 41 in late December, the odds are firmly against him reaching the 65-game threshold.

With Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton both sidelined for the season by torn Achilles tendons, this year’s All-NBA teams could look drastically different than last year’s version. If LeBron and Williams are ineligible, that already opens four of the 15 spots from last year. If Antetokounmpo also misses the 65-game threshold, that’s another open spot. Wembanyama would likely be an All-NBA lock if he clears 65 games, but that’s no guarantee now, either.

A select few players have tens of millions of dollars on the line depending on whether they make or miss the All-NBA team, as Williams can attest. If multiple stars wind up ineligible, some less deserving players may earn a spot in their place, which could put their teams in sticky situations when it comes to negotiating their next contracts.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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