Does The NFL Schedule Structure Need To Be Adjusted?

In terms of divisional races and conference contenders, the field is wide open in both the AFC and NFC.

In seven of the eight divisions, there are multiple teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better. The only race that can be considered “finished” is the NFC East, with the Eagles maintaining a three-and-a-half-game lead.

Outside of this, every other division is separated by two or fewer in the loss column.

A majority of these races have come from unexpected competitors. Teams like the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears were not expected to be at the top of the divisional standings come November.

Especially after they both finished in last place in the AFC East and NFC North, respectively.

The Indianapolis Colts finished below .500 last year, but are now competing with the Patriots for the top seed in the AFC.

Even for the teams on the outside looking in on their division, like the Carolina Panthers or Seattle Seahawks, they have exceeded expectations up to this point.

At the same time, however, the sudden change to the standings means that the expected winners have not been playing to expectations.

How did this come about? There were no significant changes to the roster of these Super Bowl contenders. In terms of team health, there were no significant losses for either side that would justify losing the divisional title.

So, who is to blame or thank for the shakeup in the standings?

To answer this, let’s look into how the regular season matchups are determined ahead of each season.

The NFL schedule is designed so that each team plays six divisional games and games against all four teams from one division in both its own and the opposite conference. The conference is selected on a three and four-year rotation.

The remaining three games are based on the team’s results in the season prior, matching teams against one another based on where they finished in the division standings.

For example, let’s look at the Eagles’ schedule. In 2025, the NFC East played the NFC North and the AFC West. In 2024, the combined record of these eight teams was 70-66.

Because the Eagles won the division in 2024, their remaining three games were against other division winners last year.

This matched them up with the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Buffalo Bills.

So, of their 11 games excluding division play, they came into the year scheduled against nine teams above .500 the year prior.

This gave the Philadelphia Eagles the fourth-toughest schedule ahead of the year.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the New England Patriots entered the year with the third-easiest schedule in football.

The AFC East divisional matchups for 2025 were the AFC North and NFC South. In 2024, the combined record of these eight teams was 62-74.

So, combined with the Patriots’ remaining three games being against the other last-place finishers in their division (Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants), New England was only set to play 4 out of division games against teams above .500.

Now, a team’s record from the season prior is a measure only to be used until Week One. After that point, the previous results become a moot point.

For the Eagles and Patriots, however, the actual talent of the teams on their schedule actually made the separation even more skewed.

All of the teams previously above .500 stayed that way in 2025, alongside the boost of the Bears starting the year 7-3.

For the Patriots, however, they only had to face three teams above .500 instead of four.

This is not a one-off chance, however, as the structure of the NFL schedule has aided the parity atop the NFL standings.

The Indianapolis Colts, for example, who are fighting with the Patriots for the best record in the AFC, were ranked 25th in terms of Strength of Schedule.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, two games behind the Colts, were one spot ahead of the Colts in the same metric.

And the Carolina Panthers, amid a 6-5 start, were ranked 28th based on the record of their opponents.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Detroit Lions came into the year with the second-hardest schedule. At 6-4 through their first ten games, they currently sit third in the NFC North.

The entire NFC North was all in the top seven most difficult schedules, which has added to the logjam of that division overall.

For the AFC West, they all ranked in the middle of the pack for strength of schedule. However, the Denver Broncos (15th in SOS) have appreciated the slightly easier schedule than the Kansas City Chiefs, as they sit atop the division.

At the end of the day, there is a reason that the NFL follows the motto of “any given Sunday”. There are no FBS matchups in the NFL, so even for the teams with the worst SOS, a win on Sunday is still going to be difficult.

However, this season may show that the NFL’s schedule structure could use some adjustments.

The problem does not necessarily lie in the three games against another opponent in the same 2024 divisional standing.

Instead, most of the schedule discrepancies come from the randomness of how competitive the divisions are for next year’s matchups.

The combination of the Eagles’ additional three games against first-place finishers and the unlucky draw of two talented divisions caused the most difficult schedule in 2025.

The Patriots’ favorable draw with their last-place finishers gave them a much easier launching pad for their championship window.

Instead of the rotating divisional opponents, perhaps the available 11 games can be evenly distributed by ranking teams 1 through 32, and ensuring each team reaches a certain threshold of “points” based on their opponents’ rankings.

Giving everyone the same number may be impossible over just 11 games. However, this is where the rankings could be incorporated, giving four thresholds of scores based on their finish the year prior.

Regardless of this armchair expert rule change proposal, the lesson that can be taken from this is to take some of the top records in football with a grain of salt.

While no victories deserve ridicule, at the very least, hesitation can be cast against teams with an easier schedule when the postseason comes around.

Not only may the matchups be more than the teams were exposed to throughout the year, but the sudden success of these teams also leads to a roster lacking playoff experience.

Depending on how the playoffs shake out, this could lead to more road teams and higher seeds advancing further in the playoffs. Even if they are the teams that failed to reach their lofty expectations in the regular season.