Analysis: Bitcoin technical support is solid, liquidity lags

PANews reported on June 27 that Matrixport's latest weekly report pointed out that after the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, the Fed shifted from a hawkish stance to a dovish stance, with several directors expressing easing views and Powell also appearing more moderate at the congressional hearing. The market expects a low probability of a rate cut in July, but the signal of a policy adjustment in September may be released in advance.

Inflation has fallen to 2.38%, close to the Fed's 2% target, and the unemployment rate has remained at 4.2% for 12 consecutive months. Although the risk of tariff inflation has not materialized, market expectations for the Fed to turn dovish continue to strengthen.

Earlier this week, after the U.S. airstrike on Iran, Bitcoin once dropped to the 21-week moving average ($98,532), which is a key technical support level. If the price returns above the moving average, Bitcoin may benefit from the Fed's dovish tone, and further upward movement is expected if the subsequent interest rate cut signal is clear.

In addition, the inflow of stablecoin funds is still intermittent, with Tether's new minting of about $12 million and Circle's almost stopped. The simultaneous increase in stablecoins and broader liquidity is crucial to the rise of the crypto market. Currently, traders are still focusing on Bitcoin, which has significantly outperformed other crypto assets.