Bitcoin stalls at $85k, month-end math signals trouble ahead

Bitcoin is hovering just above $85,000, barely batting an eyelash at the softer-than-expected, highly scrutinized U.S. inflation numbers.

Trader insights

Crypto chart guru Ali Martinez notes that Bitcoin is still stuck in a box on lower timeframes, facing resistance just under $90,000 and finding support near $85,400. A breakout could kick-start some bullish vibes, while a breakdown could mean more pain ahead.

Daan Crypto Trades also provided an interesting take.

Bitcoin is likely to see a larger price move before the end of the month, citing historical patterns in monthly trading ranges.

So far, Bitcoin’s distance between its monthly low and high is about 12%, which is smaller than usual, as monthly candles typically show wider price swings more than 90% of the time. It is statistically unlikely, therefore, that both the monthly high and low were set early in the month.

This suggests one of those levels is still likely to be breached. While the data does not indicate direction, it implies heightened volatility ahead, with Bitcoin positioned near the middle of its monthly range and at least a 5% move needed to test either extreme.

Michael van de Poppe, another analyst, said Bitcoin’s recent price action highlights the market’s sensitivity to macro events, even in the face of positive economic data.

Despite encouraging U.S. inflation numbers and a brief push higher, Bitcoin quickly reversed, underscoring the importance of the $88,000 level as a key resistance that must be cleared to restore upward momentum.

The analyst pointed to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision as the most critical catalyst of the week, noting that while equities such as the Nasdaq are rallying and gold remains stable, cryptocurrencies are lagging as traders brace for the possibility of a rate hike.