Ethena stalls below key level as 40M ENA token unlock approaches

Ethena’s native token ENA is trading at $0.2546 at press time, down 4% in the last 24 hours and extending its 17% decline over the past month as another token unlock looms.

The recent pullback has placed ENA within a cautious range between $0.2507 and $0.2659 over the past day, with price action stalling below key resistance as a sizable token unlock looms. According to Tokenomist data, roughly 40.63 million Ethena (ENA), valued at $10.34 million, are set to be unlocked today, July 2.

This represents 0.67% of the current circulating supply. With only 39% of the total 15 billion ENA maximum supply in circulation so far, today’s unlock is part of a broader vesting schedule that could introduce periodic supply pressure. 

Such unlocks could boost sell-side liquidity and affect sentiment in the short run, but Ethena’s prior unlocks have been absorbed without lasting downside. However, the timing creates a degree of uncertainty, especially given the drop in trading volume and interest in derivatives prior to the event.

In the last 24 hours, volume has dropped by almost 29% to $115 million, while Coinglass data indicates that derivatives volume has dropped 37.7% to $316.75 million. Open interest has also eased slightly to $319.06 million, reflecting some trader hesitation ahead of the unlock.

On the technical side, ENA is still under pressure. Most major moving averages, from the 10-day to the 200-day, flash sell signals. The token’s persistent trading below its 20-day EMA and SMA suggests weak short-term momentum. The relative strength index is approaching oversold territory at 41.4, but it is still neutral.

While momentum and MACD indicators show early signs of recovery, they are not strong enough to reverse the overall trend. The Bollinger Bands’ narrowing indicates less volatility. The price is still trading near the lower band, which is a warning sign that may indicate a sharp breakdown or a reversal based on volume confirmation.

If ENA manages to hold above the $0.25 support zone and absorbs today’s token unlock without a breakdown, renewed volume could drive a move back toward $0.28. A close above that level would open the path to retest the $0.30–$0.32 range. 

Failure to hold $0.25, particularly under continued low volume and increased token circulation, could expose ENA to further downside. A decisive break below $0.245 would weaken the structure, putting the $0.22–$0.23 zone in focus and dragging sentiment with it.