Michael Saylor Sparks Debate Over Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk as Bitcoiners Dismiss It as ‘FUD’

Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor earlier this week commented on the risk of quantum computing to Bitcoin, sparking debate in the crypto community. Bitcoin OG Adam Back has described any statements about the quantum risk as FUD. At the same time, venture capitalist Nic Carter has indicated that the risk is more imminent than BTC developers make it out to be.

Saylor’s Comment Sparks Debate About Bitcoin Quantum Computing Risk

During an interview with Galaxy’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, the Strategy co-founder suggested that quantum risk wasn’t imminent, stating that there will be a global consensus when that happens, with the implementation of a quantum-resistant mechanism. He further remarked that the U.S. government, banks, and private companies such as Apple will all implement these quantum-resistant codes.

In the process, Saylor also believes that the Bitcoin network will get an upgrade with the implementation of these quantum-resistant codes. Basically, he is optimistic that a solution will emerge when quantum computing poses a threat to global stability.

The Strategy co-founder also mentioned that the quantum leap may end up becoming the best thing that ever happened to Bitcoin. He noted that this could spark a supply shock that drives up the BTC price, as some coins may have to be frozen if holders do not adhere to the consensus.

Bitcoin advocates such as Adam Back have also suggested that the quantum risk isn’t imminent and have described any statement suggesting otherwise as ‘FUD.’ In an X post, Back opined that the quantum risks are zero in the short term (10 years), stating that “this whole thing is decades away.”

He added that quantum computing is “ridiculously early” and that they have massive R&D issues in every vector of the required applied physics research to find out if it is possible at a useful scale.

‘Developers Are Sleepwalking Towards Collapse’

In an X article titled ‘Bitcoin Developers are Sleepwalking Towards Collapse,’ venture capitalist Nic Carter suggested that these developers are downplaying the imminent risk of quantum computing. He admitted that the odds of a quantum break in the next decade are unknowable, but that 2025 was the most active year in quantum computing history.

Carter noted that a sufficiently “cryptographically-relevant QC” puts the Bitcoin network at risk, as this QC could enable an attacker to steal private keys from exposed public keys. He added that about 6.7 million BTC are vulnerable based on this scenario. Meanwhile, a powerful QC could also reverse-engineer the private key and redirect the expenditure between the time coins are spent and the time they are included in a block.

The venture capitalist stated that in theory, Bitcoin could soft-fork and adopt a “post-quantum” (PQ) signature scheme. However, this comes with several problems, including the fact that Bitcoin loses its original cryptography. Meanwhile, Carter also highlighted how long such a process could take, especially given that Bitcoiners may take some time to reach consensus on the new fork.

Furthermore, it could also take several months for quantum-vulnerable addresses to rotate to a new quantum-resistant address type. Notably, Satoshi Nakamoto’s BTC stash is also among the vulnerable addresses, so the Bitcoin community has to decide what happens to the coins if they are unable to move these coins to the new quantum-resistant address type.

Leaving these coins unattended leaves them at risk of falling into the hands of a quantum agent, who then becomes the largest BTC holder. Considering all these factors and potential scenarios, Carter believes the BTC community must start preparing today, even if the “day of quantum reckoning” arrives a decade from now.