Why a Declining Bitcoin Hash Rate Could Actually Be Bullish

Bitcoin’s (BTC) network hash rate has dropped 4% over the last 30 days, marking the sharpest decline in nearly 2 years.

At the same time, increased volatility and a decline in prices highlight mounting stress among miners as profits dwindle. However, according to investment management firm VanEck, the miner capitulation may signal a bottom.

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Bitcoin Mining Power Falls as Price Weakness and China Shutdowns Hit Network

VanEck’s mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report highlighted that 4% dip in the network hashing power was the largest since April 2024. The contraction comes amid a difficult month for Bitcoin, with the price sliding around 9%.

Furthermore, volatility has spiked, pushing 30-day realized volatility above 45%, the highest level seen since April 2025.

Beyond price-related pressures, Bitcoin’s hash rate was also affected by developments in China. Last week, BeInCrypto reported that approximately 400,000 machines were forced offline in China’s Xinjiang province.

The shutdown eliminated an estimated 1.3 GW of capacity and had a sizeable impact on the network. China’s computing power dropped by around 100 exahashes per second within 24 hours.

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Meanwhile, miner economics have also worsened due to Bitcoin’s price performance. According to VanEck, the breakeven electricity price on a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP miner decreased from $0.12 in December 2024 to $0.077 by mid-December 2025, representing a 36% drop. Sigel and Bush added that,

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Historical Data Signals Bullish Turn

Despite the recent pressure, VanEck noted that declining hash rate could be a “bullish contrarian signal.” Based on data since 2014, the report found that Bitcoin’s forward returns have tended to be stronger when the network hash rate is contracting.

The 90-day forward BTC returns were positive about 65% of the time when the hash rate had declined over the prior 30 days, compared with 54% during periods of rising hash rate.

In addition, average 180-day forward returns were slightly higher when the hash rate was falling, at approximately 20.5%, compared to about 20.2% when it was increasing. The pattern holds over the long term as well.

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Technical Patterns Support Bottom Formation

On the technical front, market watchers have also been outlining potential bottom signals. Market analysts, including Ted Pillows, have identified a 3-day bullish divergence for Bitcoin, a pattern that marked market bottoms in its last two appearances.

Whether Bitcoin ultimately sees another move higher remains uncertain. For now, the leading cryptocurrency remains under pressure. BeInCrypto Markets data showed that Bitcoin was trading at $88,066 at press time, down 1.01% over the past 24 hours.