Bitcoin – What should traders expect after sell pressure hits 3-year-high?

Bitcoin [BTC] is now facing the strongest spell of selling pressure in the last three years, according to a prominent on-chain analyst. In fact, Joao Wedson, Founder and CEO of analytics platform Alphractal, showed the falling buy/sell pressure delta in a post on X.

The falling values on the metric underscored aggressive selling activity, as the market sell orders vastly outnumbered the market buy orders. As we know, it is market orders, not limit orders, that move prices.

Wedson was upbeat about the finding. Although there has been strong selling pressure, this magnitude of selling is unlikely to be sustained for long. It need not mark the exact bottom, but usually tends to signal a market bottom and can be followed by a consolidation phase.

Assessing the Bitcoin market regime

While the evidence revealed rising sell pressure, the holder retention rate has been increasing in recent months. The metric tracks the percentage of addresses that maintain a Bitcoin balance across 30 consecutive days.

Dividing the number of addresses holding a balance by the total addresses that held a balance at any point in the observation period, the metric seeks to find out if holders are holding or selling quickly.

The rising retention rate is a sign that holder confidence and long-term commitment may be rising, even though there is legitimate fear that the bull market may be over.

While the retention metric’s findings were positive, traders and investors must keep an eye on the current market regime. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr pointed out that according to the buy/sell index’s values (1-day, 7-day, and 30-day), the market remains risky for buyers.

The 7D and 30D values showed signs of overheating, though the 1D value was only 43 following the price dip to $84.4k last week.

Overall, the structure remains dangerous for buyers, and long positions tend to unwind during price gains. This makes it hard for rallies to be sustained. It can be viewed as a warning that traders should sell the bounce and book profits.

Final Thoughts

• The current selling strength is at a 3-year high, but this magnitude might not last long. It could give way to a multi-month consolidation phase.
• Any BTC price bounce now should not be seen as the beginning of recovery, but an opportunity to sell.