Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Chipmaker Sets February Target for China H200 Shipments If Beijing Agrees

TLDR

• Nvidia plans to ship H200 AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year in mid-February, with initial orders totaling 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules (40,000 to 80,000 chips)
• Shipments depend on Beijing’s approval, which has not yet been granted, creating uncertainty around the timeline
• Trump administration reversed Biden’s ban on advanced AI chip sales to China, allowing H200 sales with a 25% fee
• New production capacity for H200 chips will open for orders in the second quarter of 2026
• Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance could access processors six times more powerful than the H20 chips currently available to them

Nvidia has informed Chinese clients it intends to begin shipping H200 AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February. Three sources familiar with the matter shared the timeline with Reuters.

The chipmaker plans to fulfill initial orders from existing inventory. Shipments are expected to total between 5,000 and 10,000 chip modules, which equals roughly 40,000 to 80,000 individual H200 AI chips.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

However, Beijing has not yet approved any H200 purchases. The entire timeline could change based on government decisions from Chinese officials.

Nvidia stated it continuously manages its supply chain. The company said licensed sales of the H200 to authorized customers in China will not impact its ability to supply U.S. customers.

Trump Administration Reverses Export Policy

The planned shipments follow President Donald Trump’s announcement earlier this month. His administration said it would allow H200 chip sales to China with a 25% fee attached.

This represents a complete reversal from the Biden administration’s approach. Biden had banned advanced AI chip sales to China over national security concerns.

The Trump administration launched an inter-agency review of license applications for H200 chip sales last week. This move delivered on Trump’s pledge to permit the sales.

Production Capacity and Market Dynamics

Nvidia has also told Chinese clients about plans to add new production capacity for the chips. Orders for that additional capacity will open in the second quarter of 2026.

The H200 belongs to Nvidia’s previous-generation Hopper line. Despite being superseded by newer Blackwell chips, the H200 remains widely used in AI applications.

Nvidia has focused production on Blackwell and its upcoming Rubin line. This focus has made H200 supply scarce in the market.

Chinese officials held emergency meetings earlier this month to discuss the chip situation. They are weighing whether to allow the shipments to proceed.

One proposal under consideration would require bundling. Each H200 purchase would need to include a set ratio of domestic Chinese chips.

Chinese tech giants including Alibaba and ByteDance have expressed interest in purchasing H200 chips. The potential shipments would give them access to processors roughly six times more powerful than the H20.

The H20 is a downgraded chip that Nvidia specifically designed for the Chinese market. It has been the most powerful option available to Chinese buyers under previous restrictions.

China continues pushing to develop its domestic AI chip industry. Local firms have not yet matched the H200’s performance capabilities.

Some observers worry that allowing H200 imports could slow progress in China’s domestic chip development. The availability of powerful foreign chips might reduce pressure to advance homegrown alternatives.

The sources who shared information about Nvidia’s plans declined to be identified. They cited the private nature of the discussions.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the matter. The ministry would play a key role in approving any chip purchases.

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