NCR Nov. retail price growth hits 11-month high

RETAIL PRICE growth of general goods in the National Capital Region (NCR) hit an 11-month high in November with demand boosted by holiday spending, analysts said.

Citing preliminary data, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said the general retail price index (GRPI) in the NCR grew 1.4% year on year in November, against the 1.3% reading in October. The growth rate was unchanged from its year-earlier reading.

The index had come in at 1.5% in December 2024.

“The rise in prices can still be attributed to holiday demand. Higher demand for goods and services while supply plays catch-up can cause price upticks during the period,” Reinielle Matt M. Erece, economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said in an e-mail.

He added that the delayed effects of rate cuts may have started showing up in the retail sector.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, attributed November’s faster GRPI growth in Metro Manila to cost pressures on retailers, early holiday price adjustments, specific goods’ price shifts despite low overall inflation, and base effects.

“These factors can cause the retail price index to rise even when national headline inflation is subdued due to slow food price growth,” he said.

In its December policy meeting, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lowered its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%.

The Monetary Board cut its target reverse repurchase rate for a fifth meeting in a row, bringing the rate to its lowest since September 2022.

The central bank has so far lowered key borrowing costs by 200 bps since it began its easing cycle in August 2024.

In the first 11 months, GRPI growth averaged 1.1%, significantly lower than the year-earlier 1.8% average.

Growth in the heavily weighted food index, which accounts for 37.5% of the overall index, accelerated to 1.5% from 1.3% in October.

Faster price growth was also noted in mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (2.8% from 1.9%), machinery and transport equipment (0.7% from 0.6%), and miscellaneous manufactured articles (0.9% from 0.8%).

“The price movements imply that the economy is experiencing selective inflation pressures rather than widespread stress,” Mr. Peña-Reyes said.

Meanwhile, price growth decelerated in beverages and tobacco (1.7% from 1.9%); crude materials, inedible except fuels (1.9% from 2.1%); and manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials (1.5% from 1.6%).

“Overall, this supports steady but cautious economic activity, with growth likely continuing at a modest pace rather than accelerating sharply,” Mr. Peña-Reyes said.

Mr. Erece said inflation remains below the central bank’s target range, so concerns about rising prices should be limited, though careful monitoring is still warranted as the first quarter approaches.

Meanwhile, Mr. Peña-Reyes said retail price growth in the following month “is expected to increase modestly from November’s level but will remain contained.”

“As for full-year 2025 retail price growth, it will likely stay moderate to low, in line with the generally low-inflation environment.”

In November, the consumer price index rose 1.5% from a year earlier, against the 1.7% reading in October. The year-to-date average was 1.6%, below the central bank’s target of 2% to 4%.

The PSA uses the GRPI as a deflator in the National Accounts, particularly in the retail trade sector, and serves as a basis for forecasting. — Heather Caitlin P. Mañago