VanEck Flags Rising Bitcoin Volatility and Cooling On-Chain Data

• Bitcoin volatility jumped above 45%, marking its most unstable period since April 2025.
• On-chain activity weakened as transaction fees, new wallets, and hash rate declined.
• Corporate Bitcoin holders bought the dip, while ETF investors reduced their exposure.

Bitcoin markets turned unstable in mid-December, with volatility climbing to its highest level since April 2025, according to a new analysis from asset manager VanEck. The firm noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility jumped above 45%.

Over the past month, Bitcoin has fallen about 9%, with selling pressure peaking around November 22, when the cryptocurrency briefly traded near $80,700. 

On-Chain Activity Shows Signs of Cooling

VanEck’s analysis uses what it calls the GEO framework, which looks at global liquidity, crypto market leverage, and on-chain activity to assess Bitcoin’s underlying health. The latest data shows that while long-term interest remains intact, near-term conditions softened in December.

Several on-chain indicators declined. Bitcoin’s network hash rate slipped slightly, daily transaction fees fell, and the number of new wallet addresses showed little growth. These trends point to reduced activity as traders and users took a more cautious stance.

Corporate Buyers Add Bitcoin as ETFs See Outflows

Despite market weakness, large corporate Bitcoin holders increased their exposure. Digital asset treasury firms added roughly 42,000 BTC between mid-November and mid-December, marking their largest accumulation since mid-2025. Much of that buying came from Strategy, which continues to fund Bitcoin purchases through equity issuance.

In contrast, investor demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded products weakened. Total BTC holdings in ETPs declined during the month, suggesting that some investors chose to step back amid rising volatility.

Long-Term Holders Stay Firm While Short-Term Players Sell

Blockchain data shows a clear split among Bitcoin holders. Medium-term investors, who bought Bitcoin within the last few years, were more active sellers during the recent downturn. Meanwhile, long-term holders, particularly those holding coins for more than five years, showed little change in their positions.

This pattern could mean that seasoned investors remain confident, while shorter-term traders react to price declines and uncertainty.

Mining Pressure Builds, but History Offers Hope

Bitcoin miners are also under pressure as lower prices squeeze profitability. The network’s hash rate declined over the past month, marking the largest short-term drop since early 2024. Some of the decline has been linked to rising energy costs and operational changes in major mining regions. 

VanEck said, “While Bitcoin hash has grown about 10x since 2020, it has been shrinking tactically over the past few months.”

However, VanEck said that historically, periods of falling hash rate have often been followed by stronger medium-term Bitcoin returns. Past data shows Bitcoin has delivered better six-month performance during similar phases.

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