Bitcoin Price Stalls Near 4-Hour Moving Averages During Supply Rotation Phase

• Bitcoin consolidates near 4-hour moving averages amid ongoing end-of-year supply rotation.
• Long-term holders gradually reduce positions while new investors absorb coins, keeping the market balanced.
• Price struggles to break the 4-hour 200 EMA/MA, maintaining a choppy, range-bound pattern.

Bitcoin is entering the final days of December, displaying clear signs of internal market rotation, according to recent analyses by VanEck. Despite this activity, the cryptocurrency remains constrained by a key short-term support level, keeping price action within a cautious range.

Bitcoin Supply Moves to New Investors

Data provided by VanEck in the middle of December shows the transition of coins from long-term holders of the Bitcoin market to newer investors taking place at a slow pace. The metrics measured the total number of coins not moving in at least 180 days and revealed the movement of coins out of long-term wallets.

Source: VanEck

In the chart, there are cycles involving accumulation and distribution. Spikes represent the addition to inactive balances, and large negatives represent sales. Traditionally, large sales occur around the time when the market reaches a large peak, and the older market sells to the newer one to create demand.

As the year 2025 nears its end, the outlook still holds a negative pattern. The total net change over 180 days indicates continuous withdrawal, reflecting the distribution of coins by long-term holders. However, newer investors look ready to absorb these coins, maintaining the balance of the marketplace.

VanEck believes it’s a rotation rather than panic sales. “Long-term holders who bought in at lows will gradually reduce their holdings as prices increase, while newer buyers will enter at strong momentum.” This “coin shift” does not mean it’s automatically at the top of the market, but it’s usually expected at the latter stages of the bull run.

From the data, the phases of distribution never occur in a straight line, as there are times when selling dries up or reverses before proceeding. Trends in mid-December indicate a conventional late-cycle rotation, where long-term investors are net selling, and new investors are absorbing the supply.

Also Read | Bitcoin, Ethereum See Heavy Selling As Crypto Funds Lose $952 Million

Bitcoin Struggles Against Key Resistance

In the short term, Bitcoin has yet to break through above its 4-hour 200 EMA/MA. On Dec. 23, analyst Daan Crypto Trades posted a chart showing that at the time, BTC was priced at around 87,545 on Bitfinex, while its 4-hour 200 EMA and MA stood at around 91,102 and 89,201, respectively.

Source: X

In a post on X, the analyst noted: “$BTC keeps rejecting from its 4H 200MA/EMA trend. Breaking this level is the first step to moving out of this choppy range.”

There were steep drops with a speedy turnaround because the price was range-bound below the moving average area. This corresponds with the “choppy range” description due to high volatility that prevented these trend lines from being used as supports.

If Bitcoin can manage to overcome and hold the 4-hour 200 MA and EMA, this might show a short-term change in market power. Until that happens, the rallies to the levels are faced with resistance, which maintains the range.

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