Bitcoin News: VanEck Notes BTC Miner Capitulation Strengthens Case for a Market Bottom

Key Insights:

• Latest Bitcoin news show that the BTC hashrate has declined by 4% over the month ending December 15.
• Analysts at VanEck suggest this could be a positive signal for the cryptocurrency’s price in the coming months.
• The analysts point to historical trends showing that periods of declining hashrate have often preceded strong returns for long-term holders.

The latest Bitcoin news indicate that hashrate declined by 4% over the month ending December 15. Analysts at VanEck suggest this could be a positive signal for the cryptocurrency’s price in the coming months.

VanEck’s crypto research lead Matt Sigel and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush explained that miner capitulation has historically acted as a bullish contrarian indicator.

Bitcoin News: BTC Miners Returns & Hashrate Relation

A mid-December report by VanEck highlighted that since 2014, Bitcoin has delivered positive 90-day returns 65% of the time after a 30-day hashrate decline. This Bitcoin news compares with a 54% chance of gains when the hashrate increased.

The trend remains consistent over a longer horizon. Periods of negative 90-day hashrate growth were followed by positive 180-day returns 77% of the time, with an average gain of 72%.

This notably outpaces the 61% chance of positive returns observed when the hashrate rose over the same period.

Historical data shows that periods of reduced mining activity have often given investors an advantage in predicting Bitcoin’s next price moves.

The recent Bitcoin price gains are easing some pressure on miners, allowing a few struggling operations to start turning a profit again.

Currently trading at $88,400, BTC USD is still down nearly 30% from its October 6 peak of $126,080, but the lower prices are creating openings for miners to take advantage of the market.

Dropping Hashrate is a Bullish Indicator for Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin news history has proved that a combination of price recovery and miner activity could influence the network dynamics for a long time into the future.

A flurry of Bitcoin users worry that a sustained drop in hashrate could strain the mining industry. This is because the more the hashrate drops, the easier it is for miners to sell their holdings and hence create downward pressure.

VanEck analysts, however, point to historical trends showing that periods of declining hashrate have often preceded strong returns for long-term holders.

This suggests that short-term weakness in mining activity can actually present opportunities for investors.

The pressure is visible in miner breakeven costs as well. Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush of VanEck note that the electricity cost for a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP miner has fallen nearly 36%, from $0.12 per kilowatt-hour in December 2024 to $0.077/kWh now.

It highlights just how tough conditions have become for miners. As per Bitcoin news, the 4% decline in BTC hashrate marks the largest since April 2024.

It was primarily caused by the recent shutdown of around 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China. Sigel and Bush added that much of this power could be redirected to support rising AI demand, a shift they estimate could cut Bitcoin’s hashrate by another 10%

Overall, these developments show that while some miners are facing tighter margins, the network is gradually adjusting to a changing energy landscape.

Also, not all nations are stepping back from Bitcoin mining. VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush estimate that up to 13 countries are actively supporting mining operations.

Some of the prominent players are Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, the UAE, Japan, and others.