Analyst Says Forget the Four-Year Cycle, Crypto’s New Reality Is the Ten-Year Grind

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said he expects Bitcoin to hit new all-time highs in 2026, while becoming less volatile and less tied to equity markets. He shared the themes ahead of Bitwise’s upcoming set of 10 predictions for 2026, without giving a specific peak price target.

Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” is a pattern people have noticed around halving events, when the block reward paid to miners is cut in half. The idea is that a predictable drop in new supply lines up with a repeatable boom-and-bust rhythm in price.

In the traditional story, a big sell-off is followed by a quiet period where long-term holders accumulate. Then, as a halving approaches and passes, prices rise as new supply slows and demand picks up. That run-up has often ended in a speculative peak, followed by a sharp drop and a long, flat recovery phase. The cycle resets as the next halving approaches.

But Hougan said the forces behind the old cycle are weaker. 

Today, these three forces are either much weaker or moving in opposite directions from past cycles. The bitcoin halving is by definition half as important as it was four years ago; interest rates are likely moving down in 2026, not up; and crypto didn’t boom in 2025.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer

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Volatility to Continue Its Downtrend

Hougan also said Bitcoin’s volatility has been trending down and should stay lower next year, arguing the investor base has broadened through ETFs and other traditional wrappers. 

He also expects Bitcoin’s correlation with equities to fall in 2026, with crypto-specific factors such as regulation and institutional flows potentially driving returns even if stocks face pressure from valuations and slower growth.

Finally, Hougan expects institutional participation to expand in 2026 as large wealth platforms begin allocating, naming Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan. 

Related: Crypto Industry Backs Cynthia Lummis as Pro-Bitcoin Senator Exits 2026 Race

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