Trading Moments: Precious metals surge ahead of Christmas, Bitcoin struggles with downtrend line, retreating to the $84,000 support level.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Last night's preliminary estimate of the US third-quarter annualized GDP growth rate came in at 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations. While praising the strong GDP data, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the market's current reaction and explicitly stated his hope that his newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman would cut interest rates to stimulate growth when the economy is performing well, rather than suppressing the market due to concerns about inflation. Driven by both geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, the precious metals market experienced a hot "Christmas rally," with gold prices historically breaking through $4,525, silver surpassing $72, and spot platinum and palladium also rising above $2,377 and $1,918 respectively, all reaching record highs. Analysts are generally optimistic about the future of precious metals. Yardeni Research boldly predicts that gold prices will reach $6,000 by the end of 2026 and may touch $10,000 by the end of 2029. Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri believes geopolitical tensions have increased safe-haven demand for gold, and that price levels like $4,500 and $70 are more like reference points within a trend than solid tops. Peter Grant of Zaner Metals points out that silver's next target is $75, driven by persistent supply-demand deficits and increased industrial demand. Analysts at SP Angel predict gold prices will rise to $5,000 next year, viewing central bank reserve diversification as a long-term driver. Furthermore, with Christmas Eve and Christmas Day approaching, US stock markets will close early at 2:00 AM tomorrow. While expectations of easing policies and positive economic data contribute to an optimistic outlook for 2026, uncertainties surrounding the development of the AI industry and the impact of interest rate cuts on consumption remain potential risks.

The Bitcoin market continued to fluctuate in the low-liquidity environment at the end of the year, with prices hovering between $87,000 and $88,000. Bitcoin's price was resisted by the downtrend line from its all-time high of $126,000, failing to break through the $90,000 mark and continuing the downward trend of the fourth quarter, making market sentiment exceptionally fragile. Data from CryptoQuant shows that continued selling by large investors is the main reason for Bitcoin's recent underperformance, while capital is shifting to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole warned that if Bitcoin breaks below the short-term support of $84,000 to $84,500, it could further decline to the November low of $80,000. Only a break above this trendline resistance would allow Bitcoin to potentially return to an upward trend, with a target of $100,000. Analyst Astronomer also pointed out that a higher low is currently forming, and the $84,000 level would be safe, while the widespread pessimism in the market is precisely a bullish signal. Analyst Martunn also noted that the average entry price for Bitcoin ETFs is $86,530, a support level that remains firm. BitBull observed strong buying around $80,000, believing this area will form a solid bottom before a rebound in the first quarter of 2026. However, pessimist Killa predicts that Bitcoin's price may experience a period of consolidation for 1-2 months before falling sharply to $60,000 starting in February or March.

Ethereum also fell below the $3,000 mark, struggling around $2,900. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the key in the coming days is whether it can break through the 20-day moving average. A successful break above this level would signify the end of this correction and the start of a new upward trend towards 2026. BitBull also stated that there is significant buying pressure around $2,600, and it is expected to hold this support level before a rebound in the first quarter of 2026. However, pessimistic predictions also exist. Analyst Ali Charts points out that Ethereum appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern, which could indicate a pullback to $2,400. StefanB stated that he would not consider going long until the price falls back to the $2,800 or even $2,712 area. Man of Bitcoin also believes that ideally, the price should first pull back to the support area before rising. Notably, despite the overall weak market sentiment, Bitmine, managed by Tom Lee, still bought $201 million worth of Ethereum in the past 24 hours.

Altcoins are facing a particularly difficult situation, with the arrival of an "altcoin season" seemingly a long way off. Data shows that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin has fallen 32% from its all-time high in October, with multiple indicators showing the market in an extremely weak state. Meanwhile, investor behavior in the South Korean market has also shifted. According to a report from the Bank of Korea, investors have moved from aggressive buying to short-term profit-taking, resulting in a highly retail-driven market with high turnover rates, contrasting with the increasingly institutionalized trend in global markets.

Despite the overall market downturn, some projects, such as PIPPIN , bucked the trend, surging over 30% in 24 hours thanks to massive inflows, but this was accompanied by high-risk characteristics such as concentrated holdings. Looking ahead, Fish, co-founder of Trader Joe, predicts that the market may experience a sharp and unexpected rebound after Christmas, and that if the US passes legislation such as the Clarity Act in early 2026, providing a clearer regulatory framework for the industry, it could inject new momentum into the recovery of altcoins and DeFi.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on December 24)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $87,157 (down 6.8% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $47.37 billion.

• Ethereum: $2,936 (-12.1% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $22.06 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 24 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, AVNT, GRS

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.19% / 50.81%

• Sector Performance: The NFT sector fell 9.87%, and the GameFi sector fell 8.46%.

• 24-hour liquidation data : A total of 78,779 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $225 million. This included $76.41 million in BTC liquidations, $49.39 million in ETH liquidations, and $19.18 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 23)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$188.6 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net outflows.

• Ethereum ETF: -$95.53 million

• Solana ETF: +$4.2 million

• XRP ETF: +$8.19 million

4. Today's Outlook

• US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 (in thousands): Previous value 224,000, expected value 224,000 (December 24, 21:30)

• On Christmas Eve, US stock markets will close early, and European stock markets will either close early or close early. Hong Kong stock markets will trade for half a day (expected to close early at 02:00 Beijing time on December 25).

• Trading in US, Hong Kong, European, and South Korean stock markets will be suspended for Christmas, and Brent crude oil futures will also be suspended (December 25).

• Humanity (H) will unlock approximately 105 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 25th, representing 4.79% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $14.8 million.

• Plasma (XPL) will unlock approximately 88.89 million tokens at 8 PM Beijing time on December 25th, representing 4.5% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $11.7 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Pippin up 30.4%, Rain up 13.9%, Canton Network up 5.5%, Sky (prev. Maker) up 2.9%, and Maker up 2.9%.

5. Hot News

• US Q3 GDP preliminary reading exceeded expectations, while core PCE met expectations.

• The U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years.

• The Bank of Korea: Crypto trading activity in the country has cooled significantly, with investors shifting towards concentrated profit-taking.

• James Wynn increased his leverage to 40x on BTC and simultaneously opened a long position on PEPE.

• Trend Research purchased another 46,000 ETH, bringing its total holdings to over 580,000 ETH, with unrealized losses exceeding $140 million.

• Trump Media transferred 2,000 bitcoins, worth approximately $175 million, eight hours ago.

• Bitmine purchased another 67,886 ETH in the past 24 hours, worth over $200 million.

• A new wallet purchased over 40,000 ETH from Binance and deposited them into Aave V3, and then lent out $63 million in USDT.

• Spot gold breaks through $4,500 for the first time

• Upexi has filed a petition with the SEC seeking to raise up to $1 billion to support its Solana-related businesses.

• Fuel and Bubblemaps, valued at $1 billion by VCs, currently have market capitalizations of only $11 million and $6 million, respectively.

• HashKey Capital's fourth fund completes $250 million in initial funding round.