Alex Thorn Says Bitcoin Never Crossed $100K When Adjusted for Inflation

TLDR

• Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126K actually peaked at $99,848 in 2020 dollars.
• Inflation adjustments show Bitcoin never surpassed the $100K mark.
• The US dollar has lost 20% of its value since 2020, impacting Bitcoin’s real value.
• The CPI data reveals goods are now 1.25 times more expensive than in 2020.

Bitcoin’s all-time high of over $126,000, achieved in October 2025, did not exceed $100,000 when adjusted for inflation. According to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, Bitcoin’s peak value, when adjusted using 2020 dollars, was $99,848. Thorn’s calculation factors in inflation, which has significantly impacted the purchasing power of the US dollar since 2020. This analysis provides a new perspective on Bitcoin’s price movements, considering the effects of inflation.

Adjusting for Inflation: The Real Value of Bitcoin’s Peak

The calculation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accounts for the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. Since 2020, the CPI has risen by approximately 20%, meaning that the dollar is worth only 80% of what it was worth back then. Thorn’s analysis shows that the price of Bitcoin, at its peak of $126,000, fell short of the $100,000 milestone when adjusted for the 20% loss in the dollar’s value.

Thorn stated, “If you adjust the price of Bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100,000. It actually topped at $99,848, if you can believe it.” This calculation brings to light how inflation and the changing value of money affect Bitcoin’s historical price movements, especially when compared to other assets.

Inflation’s Effect on the US Dollar and Bitcoin’s Value

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure used to track changes in the prices of goods and services over time. According to recent reports, the CPI rose by 2.7% in the last year, further diminishing the purchasing power of the US dollar. Since 2020, goods have become 1.25 times more expensive, which means that the dollar is now worth 80% of what it was worth during Bitcoin’s previous peak.

This loss of purchasing power is important when considering the real value of Bitcoin. Although the cryptocurrency reached $126,000, the adjusted value tells a different story, revealing that Bitcoin’s actual value was closer to $99,848 when taking inflation into account. This adjustment challenges the perception that Bitcoin has crossed the $100,000 threshold.

US Dollar Weakness Contributes to the ‘Debasement Trade’

As the US dollar continues to lose value, the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) has dropped significantly this year. The DXY has fallen by 11% since the beginning of 2025, reaching a three-year low of 96.3 in September. The decline in the value of the US dollar has contributed to what is known as the “debasement trade.” In this strategy, traders seek assets that they believe will hold or increase in value as fiat currencies, like the US dollar, lose purchasing power.

Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset, is often viewed as a hedge against inflation. However, Thorn’s adjusted analysis shows that, even at its all-time high, Bitcoin did not reach the six-figure mark when factoring in the dollar’s devaluation.

Bitcoin’s Historical Price Movements and Future Outlook

Bitcoin’s history is marked by volatile price swings, often spurred by shifts in global economic conditions. The cryptocurrency’s price reached new heights in 2025, attracting attention from investors and analysts alike. However, when adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin’s $126,000 peak does not reflect the same milestone many believe it represents.

With the ongoing weakness of the US dollar and inflationary pressures continuing to affect the global economy, the true value of Bitcoin may differ from its nominal price. Investors who factor in inflation may gain a clearer understanding of Bitcoin’s actual purchasing power in the current economic climate.

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