Inflation-adjusted data shows Bitcoin never truly topped $100K

Bitcoin’s record $126,000 peak supposedly failed to break the psychologically important $100,000 level when measured against inflation, according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn.

Thorn says that Bitcoin’s October all-time high of six figures translates to just $99,848 per coin if adjusted for inflation using a 2020 dollar baseline. “If you adjust the price of Bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100,000; it actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms, if you can believe it,” he wrote on X late Tuesday.

Inflation-adjusted valuation takes Bitcoin $150 below the six-figure mark

According to Thorn’s assessment, the inflation-adjusted peak is accounted for by the steady erosion of dollar purchasing power read from Consumer Price Index readings since the 2020 pandemic economy.

The Consumer Price Index tracks  inflation by looking at changes in the cost of a basket of goods and services, including food, energy, housing, and medical care. It is compiled by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and used by the Federal Reserve to make policy changes, and by investors to reduce or increase spending power and living costs.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI rose 2.7% over the 12 months through November, the lowest annual inflation rate since July. It also came in below forecasts of 3.1% and the 3% pace announced by the BLS in September.

Cumulative inflation since 2020 has reduced the dollar’s purchasing power by 20% over that period, which Thorn argues has made the greenback materially weaker currency than at the start of the decade.

In November, energy prices rose 4.2% year-over-year, food prices increased 2.6%, and shelter costs rose 3%. Medical care also recorded an uptick of 2.9%, while household furnishings and operations increased by 4.6%, and recreation rose by 1.8%. Used cars and trucks saw a 3.6% increase on the upper side. 

The BLS did not collect CPI data for October due to a 43-day U.S. government shutdown, leaving a gap in the monthly inflation record and preventing the release of monthly rates for November.

Rate cuts and ‘better looking GDP stats’ aid in dollar weakness

According to CPI index data cited by the Wall Street Journal, the US dollar fell 0.22% on Tuesday’s close, on the heels of a stronger-than-expected US gross domestic product report and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve easing in 2026. 

Traders have lowered the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on January 27–28 to 13%, down from 20% previously.

US real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 3.3% and accelerating from the 2.5% pace in the second quarter. The GDP price index, a measure of inflation in the economy, climbed 3.8% annualized and well above the 2.7% prediction, up from 2.1% in the prior quarter.

Economists like GuideStone Funds’ Jack Herr insist traders should not expect more dollar depreciation rates for 2026, but weaker growth could still cause the currency to drop even further.

“If you see any weakness at any point next year, that could probably be bad for markets, but that could definitely affect the dollar too,” Herr told Reuters.

Peter Schiff: Inflation will go up, Bitcoin will not

In other news, safe-haven asset gold surged past $4,500 per ounce on Wednesday to a fresh record, and second-line silver also went above $72.30, eyeing $80 before year-end.

Those rallies have added to gold advocate and Bitcoin naysayer Peter Schiff’s bag of reasons why investing in Bitcoin is not viable. According to Schiff, America is also headed for the worst inflation spell come next year.

“The government, the Fed, and the financial media all agree that inflation will be coming down from here. But gold and silver, commodity, bond, and foreign exchange markets are clearly signaling that America is about to experience the highest inflation in its 250-year history. If Bitcoin won’t go up when tech stocks rise, and it won’t go up when gold and silver rise, when will it go up? The answer is: it won’t,” Schiff noted on X.

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