VanEck Report: Bitcoin Enters Structural Rebalancing, Building Momentum for a 2026 Upswing

Author: Micah Zimmerman

Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin experienced significant volatility in the fourth quarter of 2025. Particularly in December, the price fell by nearly 9%, and volatility surged to its highest level since April 2025. However, VanEck noted in its mid-December "ChainCheck" report that market liquidity was improving and speculative leverage appeared to be resetting, providing long-term holders with reason for cautious optimism.

In its report, VanEck digital asset analysts painted a complex picture: despite sluggish on-chain activity, the improving liquidity environment and the gradual clearing of speculative leverage offer a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.

The report specifically highlighted the behavioral differences among different investor groups. Digital Asset Treasury continued to buy on dips, adding 42,000 BTC in December, its largest monthly increase since July, bringing its total holdings past the 1 million BTC mark.

In contrast, investors in Bitcoin exchange-traded products have reduced their holdings. This highlights a shift in the market from retail-driven speculation to corporate-level asset accumulation.

VanEck analysts also noted that some digital asset treasury companies are exploring new financing methods, such as raising funds by issuing preferred stock instead of common stock, to purchase Bitcoin and maintain operations, reflecting a more strategic long-term approach.

On-chain data also reveals a divergence between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens held for 1 to 5 years showed significant fluctuations, possibly due to profit-taking or position adjustments; while tokens held for more than 5 years were basically in a "dormant" state.

VanEck interprets this as: cyclical or short-term participants are selling assets, while the most senior holders remain confident in the future of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin miners face the challenge of declining hashrate.

Miners, on the other hand, are facing a difficult situation. VanEck data shows that the total network hashrate dropped by 4% in December, marking the largest decline since April 2024. This is due to production cuts in high-hashrate regions such as Xinjiang under regulatory pressure. Meanwhile, the break-even electricity cost for mainstream mining rigs is also decreasing, reflecting a shrinking profit margin for miners.

However, VanEck points out that, based on historical data, a decline in computing power may actually be a bullish contrarian indicator: in the past, after each sustained decline in computing power, Bitcoin has often seen an increase in the following 90 to 180 days.

VanEck's analysis is based on his proprietary GEO framework, which assesses Bitcoin's structural health from three dimensions: global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity, rather than focusing solely on short-term price fluctuations.

From GEO's perspective, improved liquidity and increased holdings by digital asset treasury companies have, to some extent, offset weak signals such as stagnant growth in on-chain active addresses and declining transaction fees.

Macroeconomic factors have also added complexity to the outlook for Bitcoin. The US dollar index has fallen to a near three-month low, driving up precious metal prices, but crypto assets such as Bitcoin continue to be under pressure.

However, the evolution of the financial ecosystem may provide new support. Market observers have noticed the rise of "exchanges for everything," platforms that integrate stocks, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets, and employ AI-driven trading and settlement systems.

Just last week, Coinbase launched an expanded feature similar to an "exchange for everything," adding products such as stock trading, prediction markets, and futures. VanEck believes that the influx of various institutions, from traditional brokerages to crypto-native companies, into this arena to compete for market share is expected to enhance Bitcoin's liquidity and application value in the long run.

Bitcoin price volatility remains significant.

Nevertheless, high volatility remains a defining characteristic of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has doubled in the past two years and nearly tripled in three years, market expectations have become more rational due to the absence of the extreme surges and crashes seen in previous cycles. Future Bitcoin price movements are likely to be more stable, and medium-term investors may face smaller cyclical fluctuations rather than the dramatic ups and downs of the past.

VanEck summarized that the overall market is currently in a period of adjustment: short- to medium-term speculative activity has subsided, long-term holders are holding their positions firmly, and institutional accumulation continues to increase. Coupled with miners reducing their scale, volatility converging, and macroeconomic dynamics, the market is currently in a period of structural rebalancing.

As 2025 draws to a close, VanEck believes Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation phase, reflecting a maturing market. This consolidation period could lay the foundation for a strong rally in the first quarter of next year.