Is a 58% Crash Coming?

Key Insights:

• Ethereum’s monthly MACD nears a bearish cross, a signal that previously preceded a 58% decline.
• ETH remains range-bound between $3,000 resistance and $2,700 support, limiting short-term trading opportunities.
• Whales accumulated 220,000 ETH last week, raising total holdings to 14.10 million ETH.

Ethereum’s monthly chart is showing signs of a possible bearish MACD crossover. The MACD line is on the verge of crossing below the signal line, which often points to a shift in momentum.

Previously, this pattern appeared in early 2025. Following that signal, ETH lost over 58% of its value in just three months, falling from more than $3,300 to nearly $1,350. However, in Q3 2024, a similar signal did not lead to further losses. Instead, the price quickly recovered. 

As one analyst observed,

This history has led traders to approach the current setup with caution.

Price Holds Between Resistance and Support

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $2,924. So far, it has been unable to move decisively in either direction. The $3,000 level continues to act as resistance, while support lies between $2,700 and $2,800.

According to Ted , ETH remains in what he calls a “no trading zone.” He stated that for stronger price action to return, ETH needs to either reclaim $3,000 or test the lower support band. If the price breaks above $3,000, it could lead to a move toward $3,130 and possibly $3,400. On the other hand, a break below $2,700 may open the way to $2,510.

For now, price action remains limited, and market participants are waiting for a breakout or breakdown to set the next direction.

Whale Accumulation Continues

Despite weak technical momentum, large Ethereum holders have continued to accumulate. Over the past week, wallets classified as “whales” added 220,000 ETH, which is valued at around $660 million.

As a result, total whale holdings have increased to 14.10 million ETH. This ongoing accumulation trend suggests that some large holders may be preparing for a future move, regardless of current chart signals. 

One market observer noted, 

Their buying activity stands out given the current uncertainty.

Market Awaits Confirmation

Over the last 24 hours, Ethereum has fallen by 0.2%. Over the past 7 days, it is up by 2.3%. The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $12.76 billion.

Until ETH moves above resistance or breaks below key support, price is expected to remain range-bound. While the MACD bearish cross may be close, recent history shows that such signals can be unreliable without price confirmation.

 As one analyst explained,