Crypto Fear Hits Extreme on Christmas as Bitcoin, Ethereum ETF Outflows Persist

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $87,000 during thin Christmas Day trading on December 25, as ETF outflows and weak holiday liquidity kept pressure on the market, according to data shared by XWIN Finance.

The pullback comes even as on-chain metrics point to easing sell pressure and a record build-up of stablecoin capital, leaving traders split between caution and the risk of sudden price swings.

ETF Outflows and Holiday Liquidity Weigh on Prices

XWIN Finance’s Trend Index, published on December 25, placed the market firmly in a “mild downtrend” with a score of 34 out of 100, citing persistent ETF withdrawals and U.S.-session selling as the main drags.

It saw Bitcoin briefly dipping below $87,000 before bouncing, though repeated attempts to reclaim the $88,000 to $89,000 area have stalled, a zone XWIN described as heavy resistance shaped by options positioning.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see net withdrawals, with roughly 2,900 BTC, worth some $251 million, leaving funds in the latest session. That weakness lines up with figures reported by CryptoPotato on December 24, which showed cumulative BTC ETF inflows shrinking by nearly $6 billion since their October peak. Ethereum funds followed a similar pattern, remaining net negative on a weekly basis despite a small daily bounce.

By contrast, diversification flows are visible elsewhere. For example, Solana products posted steady inflows, while XRP-related ETFs added about $8 million in the most recent session, extending a streak that has made XRP funds an outlier among crypto ETFs.

Bitcoin’s price action reflects this uneasy balance, with the asset trading just under $88,000 at the time of writing, up about 1% on the day and week, but still nearly 20% lower over three months.

Volatility has stayed compressed, with a 24-hour range between $87,000 and $88,000, while the past week saw swings between $85,000 and just over $90,000. Relative to the broader market, Bitcoin’s moves have been muted, with liquidity-driven wicks outweighing trend-following flows.

On-Chain Signals Hint at Exhaustion, Not Panic

Beneath the weak sentiment, on-chain data paints a more nuanced picture. XWIN noted that whale exchange inflows over the past 30 days sit near cycle lows, while Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is still falling, a sign that long-term holders are slowing their selling.

At the same time, there appears to be a fair amount of caution, with spending from very old Bitcoin cohorts ticking higher, a pattern sometimes seen near major turning points. Network activity also remains soft, suggesting demand has not yet returned in force.

According to the XWIN assessment, the current market tension is being reflected in sentiment gauges, particularly the Fear and Greed Index, which is in “Extreme Fear” at 24, while DeFi borrowing has dropped sharply since August, pointing to reduced leverage. Nonetheless, stablecoin supply has climbed to a record near $310 billion, signaling large pools of sidelined capital.

With equities and gold both at record highs and January rate expectations tilted toward a pause, macro conditions are not overtly hostile. For crypto, however, XWIN suggested that the next move still hinges on ETF flows and post-expiry options dynamics. Until those shifts, the market may stay fragile, even as signs of seller fatigue quietly build beneath the surface.

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