The post Fed Q1 2026 Outlook and Its Potential Impact on Crypto Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key takeaways: Fed pauses could pressure crypto, butThe post Fed Q1 2026 Outlook and Its Potential Impact on Crypto Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key takeaways: Fed pauses could pressure crypto, but

Fed Q1 2026 Outlook and Its Potential Impact on Crypto Markets

Key takeaways:

  • Fed pauses could pressure crypto, but “stealth QE” may cushion downside risks.

  • Liquidity matters more than cuts, shaping the direction of BTC and ETH in Q1 2026.

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025, largely in the final quarter, as unemployment ticked higher and inflation showed clearer signs of cooling.

Yet crypto markets reacted counterintuitively. Rather than rallying on dovish policy, Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and major altcoins sold off, with total market capitalization shedding more than $1.45 trillion from its record high in October.

TOTAL crypto market cap monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Let’s examine how the central bank’s policies may fare into March 2026 and their potential impact on the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin, Ether can drop harder if Fed pauses rate cuts

Despite delivering three consecutive 0.25% rate cuts, most Fed officials, including New York President John Williams, stressed the risk of inflation and data dependence, offering no clear signal of further easing.

“I don’t personally have a sense of urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now, because I think the cuts we’ve made have positioned us really well,” Williams said on Friday, adding:

US core inflation. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Bloomberg

As a result, November’s 2.63% CPI should raise rate-cut odds for Q1 2026.

Still, the record US government shutdown disrupted the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data collection. Some economists, including Robin Brooks, feared that it may have potentially distorted November’s annual inflation readings.

Source: X

That uncertainty helps explain why crypto failed to rally in the past months on the cuts themselves.

Jeff Mei, the chief operating officer at crypto exchange BTSE, said BTC could drop to $70,000, and ETH could dip to as low as $2,400 if the Fed keeps rates steady throughout Q1 2026.

Related: Bitcoin $70K flush would reset cycle, not confirm new bear market: Analyst

Fed’s “stealth QE” may stabilize crypto prices

On Dec. 1, the Federal Reserve formally ended quantitative tightening, shifting to full rollovers of maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to halt further reserve drain.

It then launched Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs), approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bill purchases, to stabilize bank reserves and ease money market stress, a move some analysts describe as a form of quantitative easing, or “stealth QE.”

In comparison, the Fed’s balance sheet increased by approximately $800 billion every month during the QE in 2020-2021, a period when the crypto market cap ballooned by over $2.90 trillion.

TOTAL crypto market cap vs. the Fed balance sheet monthly performance chart. Source: TradingView

If RMPs continue into Q1 2026 at a slower pace, they could quietly inject liquidity, supporting risk appetite and stabilizing crypto prices even without aggressive rate cuts.

“This means Bitcoin could climb to $92,000-$98,000, supported by ongoing ETF inflows surpassing $50 billion and institutional accumulation,” wrote Mei, adding:

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/fed-q1-2026-outlook-potential-impact-on-bitcoin-crypto-markets?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

시장 기회
MAY 로고
MAY 가격(MAY)
$0.01255
$0.01255$0.01255
-3.23%
USD
MAY (MAY) 실시간 가격 차트
면책 조항: 본 사이트에 재게시된 글들은 공개 플랫폼에서 가져온 것으로 정보 제공 목적으로만 제공됩니다. 이는 반드시 MEXC의 견해를 반영하는 것은 아닙니다. 모든 권리는 원저자에게 있습니다. 제3자의 권리를 침해하는 콘텐츠가 있다고 판단될 경우, service@support.mexc.com으로 연락하여 삭제 요청을 해주시기 바랍니다. MEXC는 콘텐츠의 정확성, 완전성 또는 시의적절성에 대해 어떠한 보증도 하지 않으며, 제공된 정보에 기반하여 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다. 본 콘텐츠는 금융, 법률 또는 기타 전문적인 조언을 구성하지 않으며, MEXC의 추천이나 보증으로 간주되어서는 안 됩니다.

추천 콘텐츠

Ethereum unveils roadmap focusing on scaling, interoperability, and security at Japan Dev Conference

Ethereum unveils roadmap focusing on scaling, interoperability, and security at Japan Dev Conference

The post Ethereum unveils roadmap focusing on scaling, interoperability, and security at Japan Dev Conference appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Ethereum’s new roadmap was presented by Vitalik Buterin at the Japan Dev Conference. Short-term priorities include Layer 1 scaling and raising gas limits to enhance transaction throughput. Vitalik Buterin presented Ethereum’s development roadmap at the Japan Dev Conference today, outlining the blockchain platform’s priorities across multiple timeframes. The short-term goals focus on scaling solutions and increasing Layer 1 gas limits to improve transaction capacity. Mid-term objectives target enhanced cross-Layer 2 interoperability and faster network responsiveness to create a more seamless user experience across different scaling solutions. The long-term vision emphasizes building a secure, simple, quantum-resistant, and formally verified minimalist Ethereum network. This approach aims to future-proof the platform against emerging technological threats while maintaining its core functionality. The roadmap presentation comes as Ethereum continues to compete with other blockchain platforms for market share in the smart contract and decentralized application space. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/ethereum-roadmap-scaling-interoperability-security-japan/
공유하기
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:25
Gemini Exchange Launches BNB Trading and Custody Services

Gemini Exchange Launches BNB Trading and Custody Services

The post Gemini Exchange Launches BNB Trading and Custody Services appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. TLDR: Gemini becomes latest major U.S. exchange to offer
공유하기
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/12/26 16:43
Japan Yen Faces Increased Risk as Inflation Pressures Continue to Rise

Japan Yen Faces Increased Risk as Inflation Pressures Continue to Rise

TLDR Japan’s inflation approaches 2%, driven by higher wages, increasing pressure on the yen and economy. The yen weakens to its lowest point against the U.S. dollar
공유하기
Coincentral2025/12/26 16:40