BTC Technical Analysis: Is a Major Breakout happening?

The $BTC price has all but arrived at the convergence point of a rising major trendline and the downtrend line. On Friday morning the price has broken through the downtrend, potentially putting the bulls back in the driving seat. Can the bulls sustain the breakout, or is this going to be a fakeout?

Will this breakout be legitimate?

Source: TradingView

It’s happening - or at least it looks like it is. The $BTC price is finally breaking above the downtrend line with a candle body. That said, it’s still early days and until this breakout confirms, a fakeout is always a possibility. 

As can be seen in the 4-hour chart above, the $BTC price had almost arrived at the very end of a triangle formed by the convergence of the downtrend and the major uptrend. Had the price continued traversing along, Saturday would have been the last possible day for the breakout. As it stands, that breakout may have now arrived. 

If the bulls are to take the lead now, they will need to confirm at least one candle body above the downtrend line, with probably two or three daily candle bodies holding above the trendline in order to be more convinced that this breakout can be legitimate. After this, the $90,000 horizontal resistance needs to be broken.

Breakout or fakeout?

Source: TradingView

The daily time frame shows that there is still much work to be done by the bulls today and throughout this weekend. As long as the $BTC price holds around the current level through Friday, the breakout will have begun. It then remains for the bulls to break through the horizontal resistances drawn on the chart above (in blue).

However, if the bears are able to invalidate the breakout, and the price sinks back below both trendlines, we could be in for a more tortuous path before a breakout, or we could even see a complete breakdown with the price heading down to the major horizontal supports.

Is everything about to change for Bitcoin?

Source: TradingView

The weekly chart for $BTC illustrates that a breakout here could take the price back to the all-time high and another test of the 8-year trendline. This would potentially result in a price of $130,000, although if the price were to break through the 8-year trendline, this could give rise to far higher prices.

We now wait to see whether this breakout is successful. A reliable indicator to watch here is the weekly Stochastic RSI. At present, the indicators are posturing a downward move, but this can quickly change if the breakout gets some volume behind it.

Gold, silver, and stocks, have all continued to climb while Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have taken a pretty decent haircut. This is all about to change. Bitcoin is at its absolute low against most other assets, and when you get to a bottom there is only one direction to go, and that is upwards. Expect Bitcoin to start redressing the balance as we go into the end of the year, and then through Q1 and probably Q2 as well.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.