Why XRP and Cardano Are Being Challenged in Crypto’s Next Phase

Speaking during an internal discussion with Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn, Novogratz outlined what he sees as a structural change in how crypto assets are evaluated. In earlier cycles, strong narratives and loyal communities were often enough to sustain token valuations. That era, he argues, is fading.

As capital becomes more selective, Novogratz expects investors to prioritize assets that function as productive platforms rather than symbolic networks. Bitcoin, in his view, has already crossed that threshold by establishing itself as digital money. The next group of winners will be protocol tokens that enable businesses, generate revenue, or return value directly to holders.

This shift poses a challenge for projects that rely heavily on community persistence rather than measurable usage. Novogratz pointed specifically to XRP and Cardano as examples of networks with resilient followings — but uncertain economic gravity.

He acknowledged the durability of both communities, noting that Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has successfully preserved engagement despite limited real-world adoption. XRP, he added, has shown similar resilience, even surviving years of regulatory pressure. The question, Novogratz suggested, is whether that loyalty can hold as the number of viable alternatives continues to expand.



In contrast, he highlighted newer models such as Hyperliquid, where token holders directly benefit from platform performance. With the exchange allocating the vast majority of profits toward token buybacks and burns, Novogratz compared these structures to traditional equity-like assets rather than speculative instruments. That model, he said, is likely to define the next phase of token design.

Market Reality Check for XRP

XRP’s recent price behavior reflects some of these uncertainties. The token is currently trading near $1.85, well below its 2025 peak. Technically, XRP remains locked in a broader downtrend, with successive lower highs since October.

Momentum indicators remain weak. The daily RSI sits around the high-30s, signaling persistent selling pressure without yet triggering a clear oversold bounce. MACD remains below the zero line, indicating that bullish momentum has yet to return in a meaningful way.

While XRP has seen renewed attention through the launch of spot ETFs in the US — a development that surprised many skeptics, including Novogratz himself — analysts remain cautious about near-term upside unless stronger utility catalysts emerge.

Cardano Faces a Different Version of the Same Test

Cardano’s challenge is less about regulation and more about relevance. Despite years of methodical development and an academic approach to scaling, ADA has struggled to translate research into sustained economic activity.

ADA is currently trading around $0.35, reflecting a prolonged period of declining confidence. The technical picture mirrors XRP’s weakness. RSI is hovering near the mid-30s, while MACD remains negative, reinforcing the lack of trend reversal signals.

For investors increasingly focused on revenue generation and capital efficiency, Cardano’s slow pace of adoption has become harder to justify — particularly as competitors move faster and offer clearer economic incentives.

A Narrowing Window for Narrative-Only Tokens

Novogratz expects this divergence to accelerate over the next one to three years. As crypto exchanges evolve into full-scale financial platforms — offering stablecoins, tokenized stocks, and yield products — tokens that fail to integrate into that ecosystem risk being sidelined.

In his view, the future belongs to assets that behave more like productive instruments than ideological statements. Community strength still matters, but it may no longer be sufficient on its own.

For XRP and Cardano, the message is not that failure is inevitable — but that time is no longer on their side.

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