China Tightens Silver Exports as Bitcoin Sees Whale Activity

• China’s 2026 silver export licensing may tighten global supply as smaller exporters are excluded.
• Persistent silver supply deficits deepen as inventories fall across major global vaults.
• Large Bitcoin transfers coincide with price declines, adding uncertainty to crypto markets.

China’s move to tighten control over silver exports is rippling through commodity markets, while renewed activity among large Bitcoin holders adds uncertainty to digital asset trading, creating a split reaction across traditional and crypto markets.

From January 1, 2026, China will require exporters to obtain government licenses before shipping silver abroad. Only large, state-approved producers meeting minimum thresholds, with an annual production of around 80 tonnes and access to sizable credit facilities, will qualify. Smaller and mid-sized exporters will effectively be shut out of international markets.

China is estimated to control roughly 60% to 70% of the global silver supply. With export access limited to a narrow group of firms, the policy is expected to reduce the near-term availability of physical silver outside China. The change follows a pattern seen in other strategically important materials, where export rules have quickly altered global supply dynamics.

Structural Deficits and Falling Inventories

The export restrictions arrive as the silver market is already facing a prolonged supply imbalance. For 2025, global silver demand is estimated at about 1.24 billion ounces, while supply is projected at around 1.01 billion ounces, leaving a deficit of roughly 230 million ounces. This deficit has persisted for five consecutive years.

Additionally, mining output has remained constrained, as silver production is largely tied to copper and zinc mining, rather than dedicated silver projects. New mine development typically takes more than a decade, and recycling volumes have not kept pace with rising demand. Physical inventories have also declined, with COMEX stocks down about 70% since 2020, London vault holdings down roughly 40%, and Shanghai inventories reported at 10-year lows.

Bitcoin Activity Adds Market Contrast

While silver advanced, Bitcoin markets moved in the opposite direction. On December 26, blockchain monitoring data recorded a large number of Bitcoin transfers totalling over 16,000 BTC. Most transfers ranged from 1,994 to 2,000 BTC and were sent between unidentified wallets, with no clear indication of the purpose behind the movements.

The transfers occurred as Bitcoin prices slipped back into negative territory. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $87,507.34, down 1.96% over the past 24 hours, with daily trading volume of approximately $31.66 billion and a market capitalization of nearly $1.75 trillion.

Related:Why Is Silver Rising Today While Bitcoin Isn’t?