OSL trading time: large transactions and daily active addresses decreased, and the market trend diverged

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETF, ETH, BTC

A series of recent developments are having a profound impact on the global cryptocurrency market. Although China still prohibits the direct operation of Bitcoin exchanges, there are signs that the cryptocurrency ETF launched in Hong Kong may gain trading opportunities in mainland China. This potential breakthrough echoes legislative developments in Texas, the US state senate is considering using its $24 billion sovereign wealth fund to develop a Bitcoin reserve plan. At the same time, regulators may approve pledge ETFs, which is seen as a key move to attract institutional investment.

Against the backdrop of these policy and market dynamics, the cryptocurrency market has recently experienced significant volatility. The price of Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since November 2024, despite optimistic forecasts still expecting it to rise to highs of $500,000. Similarly, the Ethereum market was hit hard, with its price falling below $2,150, accompanied by a massive sell-off of more than 440,000 ETH. These fluctuations occurred in the context of an overall sluggish market, with a significant drop in large transaction volume and a decrease in daily active addresses, further exacerbating market uncertainty.

There are divergent forecasts on the future market trend. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may fall into a unilateral mode, limiting its breakthrough in the next four months; however, other forecasts are more optimistic, predicting that Bitcoin will rebound to a profitable level. Among them, a former Goldman Sachs analyst even predicted that Bitcoin may break through the $200,000 mark, and this growth momentum mainly comes from the active participation of large financial institutions.

Despite the recent massive market sell-off and price volatility, the cryptocurrency sector still shows potential for recovery and growth. Global developments, including potential legislative changes, capital investment strategies, and positive financial forecasts, continue to shape the cryptocurrency market landscape and provide new opportunities and challenges for investors.

2. Key data (as of 12:30 HKT on February 28)

• S&P 500: 5,861.57 (-0.34% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 18,544.42 (-3.97% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: -7.71% (-35.30 basis points for the year)

• US dollar index: 107.365 (-1.02% year-on-year)

• Bitcoin: $80,500.32 (-5.16% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $248,185.6 million

• Ethereum: $2,139.98 (-35.850% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $30.455 billion

3. ETF flows (February 27 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$275.8 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$71.08 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

Second estimate of GDP quarterly growth rate (21:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 3.1% / Expected: 2.3%

Core PCE price index month-on-month (21:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 0.2% / Expected: 0.3%

Personal consumption expenditure month-on-month (09:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 0.7% / Expected: 0.2%

5. Hot News

China Asset Management (Hong Kong) successfully launched the first retail tokenized fund in Asia Pacific

BTC falls below $80,000, down 6.58% on the day

Bithumb will launch SHELL Korean Won trading pair

MetaMask releases new roadmap: launch of smart contract accounts, batch transaction function and MetaMask debit card

OpenAI GPT-4.5 API is now available

U.S. stocks closed: Nasdaq fell 2.7%, Nvidia fell more than 8%

Uniswap integrates Robinhood, MoonPay, and Transak, launching fiat currency withdrawal function

Olas launches Mech Marketplace, a decentralized AI agent market where AI agents can hire and collaborate autonomously

SEC to drop enforcement case against ConsenSys and MetaMask

Source: BitMEX is seeking to sell and has commissioned investment bank Broadhaven to assist in the transaction

Coinbase and NEAR form an open AI alliance to promote decentralized AI services

SEC’s determination: Meme coins are not securities, investors must bear their own risks

Standard Chartered Bank: Bitcoin could reach $500,000 before Trump leaves office

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending February 22 was 242,000

U.S. House Democrats propose new bill to prohibit public officials from issuing, sponsoring or endorsing any securities, commodities or digital assets

CryptoQuant CEO: It will take at least another month to confirm whether we have entered a bear market

Pakistan is considering setting up a crypto committee to oversee crypto policy

Metaplanet will issue 2 billion yen zero-coupon ordinary bonds to purchase BTC

10x Research: In the worst case scenario, BTC will fall to the $72,000 to $74,000 range and then rebound. $82,000 is a potential demand zone

MyShell (SHELL) is launched on Binance HODLer Airdrop

Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of US$755 million yesterday, marking the seventh consecutive day of net outflow

Bitwise Aptos ETF is officially registered in Delaware as a statutory trust

Bitwise CIO: Solana's monthly decline has reached 42%, and the crypto market is digesting the decline of the Meme coin craze

DTCC Lists First Solana Futures ETFs, $SOLZ and $SOLT

Today's Fear and Greed Index dropped to 10, the lowest since June 2024

Trump: Will soon announce 25% tariffs on EU

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