Bitcoin Needs 6% Rally to Close 2025 in Green, Analyst Warns

• Bitcoin must gain 6.24% from $93,374 yearly open to close 2025 positively, per analyst Nic Puckrin.

• Trading in mid-to-high $80,000s amid struggling upside in thin markets signals a pivotal year-end window.

• Post-halving history shows no down years; a failure risks breaking this cycle with 30% drop from October $125,000 peak.

Bitcoin needs 6.24% rally to end 2025 in green above $93,374 open. Analyst views on price action, Fed cuts, gold ratio amid volatility. Will BTC buck trend? Stay informed on key catalysts now.

How Much Must Bitcoin Rally to End 2025 in the Green?

Bitcoin must rally approximately 6.24% above its 2025 yearly open of around $93,374 to finish the year higher than it began. Nic Puckrin, CEO of a crypto analytics firm, highlighted this narrow target as BTC trades in the mid-to-high $80,000s during late December. With few trading days left, this push determines if 2025 avoids becoming the first down year post-halving event since supply cuts drove market cycles.

What Caused Bitcoin’s 30% Plunge from Its October Peak?

Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $125,000 in October before a historic market crash triggered a broad crypto sell-off. Since that peak, BTC has declined roughly 30%, bottoming near $80,000 in November. Analysts now debate if this breaks the two-year structural uptrend, as price trades below the critical 365-day moving average—a key support level signaling weakening momentum. Volatility metrics in 2025 show elevated swings and fading speculative interest, exacerbating the drop. Market divisions persist, with focus on macroeconomic liquidity and technical breaks. Bitcoin’s sustained position under the 365-day moving average underscores potential bearish persistence into 2026 unless recovery catalysts emerge.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Bitcoin Close 2025 Higher Than Its Opening Price?

Bitcoin opened 2025 around $93,374 and needs a 6.24% rally to exceed this for a green close. Currently at $87,000-$90,000, thin year-end trading poses challenges, per Nic Puckrin. Success would preserve post-halving uptrend history.

Can Fed Rate Cuts Help Bitcoin Rally by Year-End 2025?

The Federal Reserve’s three 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 boosted crypto sentiment by favoring risk assets with added liquidity. However, Chairman Jerome Powell’s December FOMC comments introduced uncertainty, with only 18.8% odds of a January cut via CME FedWatch tool. Lower rates generally support rallies, but mixed guidance tempers expectations.

Key Takeaways

• 6.24% Rally Threshold: Bitcoin must surpass $93,374 from current $80,000s levels to end 2025 positively, avoiding first post-halving loss.
• Technical Weakness: Trading below 365-day moving average after 30% October drop signals eroding support amid high volatility.
• Macro Influences: Fed cuts aid sentiment, but Powell’s caution and gold ratio risks add pressure—watch liquidity for final push.

Bitcoin’s Relationship with Gold and Broader Momentum

Glassnode lead analyst James Checkcap noted Bitcoin can sustain momentum independently of gold or silver pullbacks. In a recent analysis, he emphasized on X that decoupling allows BTC performance without precious metals slowdowns, countering correlated decline views. Separately, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, projects BTC’s gold ratio falling to 10x from 20x by 2026, more likely than rising to 30x—even with stable USD prices. This potential 50% relative decline highlights diversification risks in portfolios. BTC’s year-end positioning thus hinges on these dynamics, with Fed policy under Jerome Powell adding liquidity variance through FOMC decisions.

Conclusion

As 2025 concludes, Bitcoin’s 6.24% rally to exceed its $93,374 open remains the focal point for a green year-end amid technical breaks and volatility. Fed rate cuts provide tailwinds, yet Powell’s guidance and gold ratio projections from experts like Mike McGlone temper optimism. Nic Puckrin and James Checkcap’s insights underscore the high stakes. Monitor final trading sessions closely, as this milestone could shape Bitcoin’s 2026 trajectory and investor confidence in post-halving resilience.