Bitcoin (BTC) at Risk? Break Below 100-Week MA Signals Trouble

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near a key long-term level as it heads into the final days of the year. The asset has shown a small recovery early in the week, but it remains close to a major technical support that has triggered large corrections in past cycles.

At press time, Bitcoin is priced at around $86,700 with a 24-hour trading volume of $35 billion. The asset is down by 1% over the last day and almost 4% weekly. It reached a local low of $80,500 on November 21 and has been trading between $84,000 and $90,000 for over a month.

BTC Tests Historical Support Level

Bitcoin is sitting on the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), a level that has marked the start of every major cycle correction over the past decade. Analyst Chain Mind noted that previous breaks below this line led to drawdowns of 35% to 55%. The most recent example was in 2022, when BTC fell more than 57% after closing below the same level.

The chart shows that this moving average has acted as a floor in past bear markets. The current pullback already reflects a 31% decline from the recent peak of around $126,000. A confirmed close below the 100-week SMA would place BTC at risk of repeating earlier patterns, possibly moving toward the $35,000 to $50,000 range.

Meanwhile, the slope of the moving average is flattening, which suggests long-term momentum is slowing. Traders are watching the weekly close to see whether Bitcoin can stay above this area or continue lower.

On shorter timeframes, BTC is attempting to reclaim the 20-day moving average after 78 days of staying below it. Michaël van de Poppe commented that this could change the short-term pattern, but warned,

Notably, the 20-day moving average remains an important short-term indicator. The price needs to hold above this level through the next few sessions to confirm a trend reversal.

Whale Activity and Sentiment Signals Mixed

Analyst CW pointed to long positions held by Bitfinex whales, suggesting the early stages of a new cycle may be underway.

However, others are less optimistic. Ali Martinez described the current move as a potential dead-cat bounce, adding that BTC may “make another leg lower” before stabilizing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, showing that momentum remains weak (per TradingView).

Bitcoin opened 2025 at $93,400. It is now down about 5% for the year. With three days left before the yearly candle closes, Lark Davis noted, “$BTC has never closed a post-halving year candle as red in its history.”

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