The Top 10 economic and commodity stories of 2025

The current holiday season and possibilities in the coming year give us joy and hope despite continuing gloom in our political establishment. These recent reports in BusinessWorld give us hope for the future: “ASEAN chairmanship to boost 2026 growth prospects, biz chamber says” (Dec. 21), “Go: Economy back on track by Q1” (Dec. 23), “Recto touts gov’t record in containing inflation” (Dec. 28).

Here is my list of the Top 10 economic and commodity stories of 2025.

1. Most Asian nations have seen rising GDP growth from 2023 to 2025 in the first three quarters (Q1-Q3) of each year; in particular: Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Those with flat or showing a slight decline in growth are: the Philippines, Indonesia, India, China, Japan, and South Korea.

2. Most countries in America and Europe have had declining growth, particularly: the US, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Russia, and also Australia. Those with very low growth are the UK, France, Italy, and Germany.

3. The fastest growing countries in 2025 in the list of the top 50 largest economies in the world are all Asian nations — India and Vietnam with 7.8% growth, Taiwan with 7.1%, China with 5.1%, and Indonesia and the Philippines with 5%. Yes, the Philippines still has high growth compared to many countries in the world.

4. All the pessimistic growth scenarios for 2025, especially for Asia because of Trump’s imposition of high tariffs starting April, failed to materialize.

5. There is overall price stability across many countries around the world, with inflation below 3.5% in 2025. Two Asian nations have seen deflation: Thailand and China. Instead of trade disruption, trade diversion is what has happened, with China exporting more to Asia and other countries at low prices, contributing to the low inflation of those countries.

6. The Philippines managed to cut inflation by half, from 3.2% in 2024 to only 1.6% in 2025. Low inflation is a good reason for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to cut interest rates (see Table 1).

7. Global energy prices have stabilized at lower levels. Looking at prices of WTI crude oil from 2021 to 2025, they are down by 24%, while coal is down by 36%. So, claims of “spiraling” fossil fuel prices are wrong. US natural gas prices are high this month because of a very cold early winter.

8. Gold and silver prices are through the roof. In 2025, they are 148% and 246% higher than 2021 prices, respectively. Copper showed a modest price increase. Several Philippine mining companies, like Philex, are producing gold, silver, and copper, a revenue bonanza for them and a tax bonanza for the government.

9. Agricultural commodities like rice and corn also experienced price declines this year. Coffee prices are up due to rising demand, while supply was affected by bad weather in major coffee producers like Brazil and Vietnam, rising logistic costs, etc. (see Table 2).

10. Humanity (especially in Asia) is still on a continuing march to economic prosperity this year, thanks to rising incomes, declining overall inflation, and lower energy prices. Many European nations though continue their march to deindustrialization and degrowth.

The Philippines chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) in 2026 will help spur more high-level business and economic partnerships with the country. Not only with other member-countries of the association, but also with the largest economies in the world since bilateral summit meetings are scheduled between the ASEAN and the US, China, Japan, India, South Korea, and the EU, which will be held in Manila sometime in October or November.

The various Cabinet Secretaries, led by Executive Secretary Ralph Recto, will incorporate many items in the national agenda with regional and global agenda. Press Secretary Dave Gomez will have a big challenge communicating nationwide the significance of those meetings and agreements to the Filipino people.

Have a happy and prosperous new year, dear readers.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com