Cantor Fitzgerald Analyst Expects Crypto Winter in 2026

Key Highlights

• The Wall Street giant Cantor Fitzgerald has disclosed in a report that a prolonged market could begin in 2026 as Bitcoin could face sustained downward pressure to test key support levels
• However, the company clarified that this phase will be different from the past bear markets, thanks to institutional dominance and growth in real-world utility 
• According to the report, clear U.S. regulations and a supportive regulatory environment are reducing risk and encouraging intense participation from financial institutions

In the latest year-end analysis report released on December 29, the popular Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald shared a cautionary outlook for the cryptocurrency market. 

The report covered by Brett Knoblauch suggested that the cryptocurrency sector may be entering into a new extended downturn, also known as a “crypto winter,” beginning in 2026. 

The analysts predict Bitcoin could experience sustained selling pressure, which potentially sends it to check important lower price levels. 

However, the firm has also shared an important note, saying that this expected phase will not be like the catastrophic collapses of past bear markets. Instead, Cantor Fitzgerald has mentioned that the period would provide great stability, inspired by large institutional investors and major technological progress rather than retail speculation. 

Cantor Fitzgerald Report Highlights Institutional Growth and Real-World Use

The Cantor Fitzgerald report has highlighted the major trend witnessed in 2025. While the price of many digital tokens or cryptocurrencies moved or fell, the underlying activity on blockchains saw explosive growth. 

Some major areas, like decentralized finance, the tokenization of physical assets, and core infrastructure, all expanded significantly. This change shows that large financial institutions, not everyday traders, are now the dominant force shaping the market’s direction. This pattern shows a major development toward maturity. 

One of the major examples of this is the real-world growth of tokenization of real-world assets. The total value of assets like the U.S. Treasury bonds, credit products, and company stocks represented on blockchain networks tripled in 2025 to reach $18.5 billion. 

Cantor Fitzgerald believes that this figure could surpass $50 billion in 2026, as traditional banks and asset managers increasingly use blockchain technology to improve settlement times and operational efficiency. This institutional activity provides a foundation for growth independent of short-term price swings.

However, there are some critics opposing this tokenization trend. Nandini Sukumar, CEO of the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), said, “The WFE supports innovation, particularly when done based on exchange traded products. However, these mimicked products do not meet the high standards which investors are used to. What we are seeing is a blatant attempt to circumvent regulation, with some firms seeking “no action” relief from regulators or deliberately operating through legal grey areas. Most concerning is the risk to retail investors, who may be misled into believing they hold the same rights and protections as traditional shareholders. In many cases, they do not. Investor protection must remain paramount, and regulation must evolve to ensure that new technologies are not used as a mask for risk and opacity.”

Regulatory Clarity Supports Long-Term Foundation

The evolving regulatory landscape is also seen as a supportive factor. Recent regulatory frameworks in the United States, including clearer distinctions between securities and commodities regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), are reducing legal uncertainty. 

This clarity makes it easier for major financial players to engage with the market. 

Furthermore, the report shows the rapid rise of on-chain prediction markets, particularly for sports betting, which generated over $5.9 billion in volume. This figure represents more than half of gaming company DraftKings’s third-quarter handle. 

Despite the positive long-term indicators, Cantor Fitzgerald’s report notes some major concerns. The report mentioned that Bitcoin’s price is only about 17% above the average cost basis for some of its largest corporate holders, such as Strategy. 

A major price drop below these levels could negatively impact market sentiment. 

Also Read: Bitcoin Back Above $90K Amid Rising Demand and Tensions