Cantor Fitzgerald Says Crypto Winter In 2026 Will Precede Institution-Driven Shift For The Market

Cantor Fitzerald has warned that Bitcoin, along with the rest of the crypto market, may be heading for a pro-longed downturn that is often referred to as a “crypto winter” by traders. 

However, the firm said that the predicted downturn will likely see the digital asset space undergo a transition phase that will see it shift from a retail-driven to an institutional-driven market. If this happens, it could bring more stability to the industry. 

Bitcoin Could Test Strategy’s Breakeven Point As Prices Expected To Remain Under Pressure

In a year-end report, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch based his prediction that a crypto winter is incoming based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle. 

The largest crypto by market cap went on to reach a new all-time high (ATH) above $126K on Oct. 6. 

Since establishing that price record, BTC has corrected more than 30% to trade at $87,325.34 as of 12:45 a.m. EST, data from CoinMarketCap shows. 

BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap) 

That decline is expected to continue, according to Knoblauch. In the report, he warned that BTC’s price could drop to around $75K. This is a level that is close to the average breakeven price for leading corporate Bitcoin holder Strategy.

Strategy’s executive chairman Michael Saylor announced in an X post yesterday that his company bought another 1,229 BTC for around $108.8 million last week. He added that Strategy now holds 672,497 BTC that was acquired for about $50.44 billion. The average acquisition price for these holdings was $74,997 per coin. 

If BTC drops below that average purchase price, it could put additional strain on Strategy’s share price, which has already dropped over 61% in the past six months amid a decline in the broader crypto treasury market. 

Market For Tokenized RWAs Has Tripled This Year, Could Balloon In 2026

While Knoblauch has warned of a BTC price decline, the analyst did point to a growing divergence between crypto prices and what is actually happening behind the scenes. 

One of the segments of the digital asset market that the analyst highlighted was the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs).  

According to the year-end report, the value of tokenized RWAs onchain, such as US Treasuries, credit products and equities, has tripled this year to $18.5 billion. 

Cantor Fitzgerald forecasted that the growth seen this year will continue in 2026, and possibly see the total value of tokenized RWAs reach $50 billion next year. 

Decentralized Exchanges And Prediction Markets Momentum Expected To Continue

Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted the growth seen with decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and prediction markets this year. 

DEXs are able to operate without intermediaries, and have started chipping away at the market share of their centralized counterparts. 

Although trading volumes on both centralized and decentralized platforms will likely drop if there is indeed a crypto winter, Cantor Fitzgerald said that it expected DEXs, especially those that facilitate the trading of perpetual futures, to keep growing as infrastructure and user experience improve.

With regards to prediction markets, Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted the growth of these platforms, especially when it comes to sports betting. The firm noted that volumes have ballooned to over $5.9 billion.