Robinhood projects positive 2026 as retail trading cools

Robinhood Markets’ chief investment officer said the trading platform expects positive stock market performance in 2026, though returns may not reach double-digit levels.

Stephanie Guild, CIO of Robinhood, told CNBC that the company has observed increased customer participation and net buying activity, particularly during the summer months.

However, net buying has declined from peak levels observed around October 29th, Guild noted.

“For next year, we’re looking at still another strong year,” Guild said in the interview. “We’re not predicting double-digit returns for next year.”

Guild cited several economic factors that could influence market performance, including a potential government shutdown, interest rate movements, and labor market conditions. The company has developed probability ranges around various scenarios, with the base case projecting solid strength, according to Guild.

The Robinhood executive indicated expectations for market diversification away from large-cap stocks and major indices. Growth is anticipated to expand beyond the technology sector into other industries, Guild stated.

Guild said the firm’s analysis of earnings growth expectations across individual sectors revealed that technology sector projections exceed historical averages. The company believes other sectors may provide stronger support for S&P 500 performance in the coming year, according to Guild’s remarks.

“We think there’s probably more beef coming in other sectors, and that’s why we think at the S&P 500 level, we still see a good year, but it may be more supported by other sectors besides just tech this year,” Guild stated.

Robinhood operates as one of the world’s largest retail trading platforms. As of November, it doesn’t plan on creating a crypto treasury.