Why the Next Cycle Won’t Save Most Altcoins, According to Michaël van de Poppe

• Most altcoins are down nearly 90% and are unlikely to recover, according to Michaël van de Poppe.
• Measuring returns against USD hides underperformance versus the altcoin market benchmark.
• Legacy altcoins with weak adoption and heavy bagholder supply are losing relevance.

Most altcoins are not coming back, the core of the message from popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who claims that investor assumptions from past cycles no longer apply.

According to him, the last year has been worse for altcoins than 2022, with many tokens down close to 90% from cycle highs. This is not just a bear market. It is a reset, he said. 

Earlier cycles rewarded almost every altcoin because crypto was new and hard to price. That environment no longer exists. Valuation is stricter, capital is selective, and most projects are failing to justify their existence.

The Benchmark Problem Is Killing Returns

Van de Poppe argued that most investors measure performance the wrong way. Gains against the dollar hide underperformance against the market itself. The correct benchmark is the altcoin market, not fiat.

During the previous cycle, the total altcoin market excluding Bitcoin delivered roughly a 39x return. Against that benchmark, many well-known coins failed. Litecoin (LTC) returned about 17x and NEO about 33x, both underperforming the market.

Solana, on the other hand, delivered roughly 250x from lows, massively beating the benchmark. Underperforming the benchmark means losing relative value even if price rises in dollar terms. Van de Poppe claimed that this is why many long-held altcoins quietly destroyed portfolio returns.

Related: Mike Novogratz Says Community Loyalty Won’t Save XRP and Cardano in a Maturing Market

Old Narratives Are Dead Weight

According to van de Poppe, most legacy altcoins suffer from the same issues, i.e., weak adoption, outdated design, and heavy bagholder supply. These assets no longer solve a real market problem, and hype alone is no longer enough to drive price.

He compared the current environment to the dot-com crash. Many early internet companies never recovered, even though the internet itself thrived. Crypto is following the same path.

Institutional capital benefits the sector overall but squeezes smaller teams that cannot compete on scale, compliance, or execution.

Survival Depends on Growth Versus Price

Van de Poppe added that the few altcoins that survive will show a clear disconnect between usage growth and price. He is focused on assets where adoption is rising despite valuation falls, creating a gap that can later close.

He discussed examples like Arbitrum (ARB), Near Protocol (NEAR), and Aave (AAVE) where total value locked, transaction volume, or fee generation has increased sharply while token prices have stalled or declined.

In those cases, price is lagging fundamentals rather than leading them. That is where upside still exists. On the other hand, chains with shrinking activity and falling usage are unlikely to recover, regardless of how far the price has already dropped.