Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead?

Bitcon has ended 2025 lower than it began, marking the first time it’s fallen in a post-halving year.

Bitcoin (BTC) halvings occur every four years, when mining rewards are cut in half and fewer new coins enter the market. Historically, this has resulted in a cycle of accumulation: a post-halving bull run that peaks, followed by a sharp correction and a multi-year bear market.

After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin spiked to end the following year at a new high; a similar pattern played out in 2016 and again in 2020. 

However, the pattern has broken this time. 

Despite the latest halving being in April 2024, Bitcoin is now trading down more than 30% from its all-time high of $126,080, set on Oct 6 and ending the year lower than it began, according to data from CoinGecko.

The four-year cycle has frequently been used to predict and analyze how the crypto markets will broadly act.

Analysts tipped death of four-year cycle for months

Vivek Sen, the founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, said in an X post on Wednesday that Bitcoin was ending the year down, which shows the four-cycle is now “Officially dead.”

Meanwhile, investor Armando Pantoja shared a similar view, attributing it to the influx of new institutions and traders.

“The Market Has New Players, crypto isn’t 2016 or 2020 anymore. ETFs, institutions, and corporate balance sheets don’t trade like hype-driven retail. Bitcoin Trades macro now BTC reacts to liquidity, rates, regulation, and geopolitics, not a perfect halving calendar,” he said.

Related: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may not be dead after all: Glassnode

Pantoja added that the halving still matters in the grand scheme, but the “supply is increasingly locked, miners have financing options, and price dynamics aren’t as automatic as before.”

Other crypto execs split on four-year cycle

Crypto executives, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Hunter Horsley, had said throughout 2025 that the four-year cycle was a thing of the past.

However, some industry figures argue it’s alive, just playing out differently than in previous years. 

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said during a December edition of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the cycle remains intact, but it is no longer dictated by programmed supply cuts.

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