Bitcoin Ends 2025 Lower: Bullish Outlook for 2026 or More Pain for Holders?

A bearish monthly close at around $87,500 has done nothing to warm the hearts of the bulls. The continual sideways choppiness looks set to continue, as the $BTC price founders below the major ascending trendline yet again. Are we in for a bearish Q1, or is there light at the end of the tunnel for this bottoming process? 

$BTC price continues to march sideways

Source: TradingView

In the short-term time frame there isn’t really anything much to report. The $BTC price is just continuing to march sideways. In fact, the downtrend line may as well not even be there for all the lack of respect the price has paid it since breaking through. Yes, there was an initial spurt, but that only really matched the short-lived rallies that went before, and which also petered out once they encountered the $90,000 horizontal resistance.

In addition, the price has gone below the major ascending trendline so many times now that it’s ceased to be a concern - until of course when potentially the price starts to drop well below.

The Stochastic RSI indicator lines still have a little way to go to hit the bottom, so if they do, there might be a bit more downside to come in this reversal leg, which could take the price down to the $86,000 horizontal support.

$BTC price remains in a bear flag

Source: TradingView

Zooming out into the daily time frame it can be seen that the price is slowly inclining upwards, although this is within a bear flag pattern, which could eventually break down and send the price very much further down.

Nevertheless, while the $BTC price persists above the major trendline and decent support at around $86,000, there is still plenty of hope for the bulls.

The Relative Strength Index at the bottom of the chart continues to be in favour of the bulls given that the indicator line has broken through the downtrend and remains above it. 

Bitcoin closes lower for 2025

Source: TradingView

Whichever way the bulls try to put gloss and shine on Bitcoin’s progress over the whole of 2025, the damning evidence is that the $BTC price is lower at the end of the year than it was at the beginning.

So is this a sign that Bitcoin has topped at $126,000 and that we are already some way into a bear market? Not necessarily. In fact, it can be argued that the chart and indicators are pointing to a major rally. 

Firstly, if one looks left at the last major reversal it can be seen that there was a big red monthly candle followed by a small indecisive one, that was then followed by bigger green monthly candles. Isn’t almost the exact same setup playing out now? Yes, there was a bottoming tail for the first green candle last time, and this could happen again. However, the price wasn’t as oversold last time. Therefore, we could arguably expect that same rally.

Time to do the opposite of the herd

Markets will usually do the opposite of what most expect. Crypto has been abandoned by investors in droves. Many have gone across to the traditional stock market - excited by the gains from the likes of Nvidia and other AI stocks. 

Bitcoin and crypto is unloved, beaten down, and last year’s shiny thing. If one looks at the $BTC price compared to any of the big stock market assets, or even gold and silver, it is right at the bottom for practically everything. Now might be a very good time to buy.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.