EUR/USD extends mild losses in a calm start to the year

EUR/USD opened the year with marginal losses, trading around 1.1740 at the time of writing after having peaked at above 1.1800 in late December. Most currencies have wavered within tight ranges in a calm session in Asia, with trading volumes still thin as markets in China and Japan remain closed for the New Year celebrations.

From a wider perspective, the pair remains at a short distance from the three-month highs at 1.1808 seen right before Christmas. The US Dollar USD) depreciated about 14% against the Euro in 2025, weighed by market concerns about US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies, signs of deceleration in the US economy, and, lately, also the monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

In the macroeconomic front, the focus today will be on the release of the final Manufacturing HCOB PMIs in the Eurozone and some of its member countries. In the US, the S&P Manufacturing PMI might provide some fresh impetus to the Greenback.

Euro Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.25%	0.16%	0.28%	0.37%	0.10%	1.28%	0.55%
EUR	-0.25%		-0.09%	0.04%	0.12%	-0.16%	1.02%	0.30%
GBP	-0.16%	0.09%		0.27%	0.21%	-0.06%	1.11%	0.39%
JPY	-0.28%	-0.04%	-0.27%		0.10%	-0.18%	0.98%	0.28%
CAD	-0.37%	-0.12%	-0.21%	-0.10%		-0.23%	0.88%	0.18%
AUD	-0.10%	0.16%	0.06%	0.18%	0.23%		1.18%	0.46%
NZD	-1.28%	-1.02%	-1.11%	-0.98%	-0.88%	-1.18%		-0.72%
CHF	-0.55%	-0.30%	-0.39%	-0.28%	-0.18%	-0.46%	0.72%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Daily Digest Market Movers: Little movement in thinned trading

The Euro maintains the mild bearish tone seen earlier this week, with most currencies trading within tight ranges amid a lack of macroeconomic releases and low volume trading due to the New Year bank holidays.
In Europe, the final German HCOB Manufacturing PMI is expected to confirm that the sector’s activity accelerated its contraction to 47.7 in December from November’s 48.2 reading.
The Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI is seen at 49.2 in December, after having contracted from 49.6 in November and 50.0 in October.
Later on Friday, the focus will shift to the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, whose preliminary reading showed a slowdown to 51.8 in December from 52.2 in November. The figures are consistent with moderate business activity growth.
Investors, however, are likely to be attentive to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, due at the end of next week, and the name of the person who will replace Chairman Jerome Pôwell at the Federal Reserve, which is expected to be disclosed in the coming weeks.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD extends losses after breaching trendline support

EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart

The EUR/USD’s immediate trend remains bearish, after breaching the trendline support from mid-November lows. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems unable to return above the key 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps trading below zero, although the flattening line hints at a softer bearish momentum.

Bears, however, need to break support at the December 17 and 19 lows, near 1.1700, to confirm the trend shift. In such a scenario, the focus would shift towards the December 4 high and December 11 low, around 1.1680, and the December 8 and 9 lows near 1.1615.

Upside attempts have been capped at 1.1764 earlier on the day. Further up, the reverse trendline, at 1.1785, and the December 16 and 24 highs above 1.1800 are likely to pose significant resistance.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Germany’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. As Europe’s main manufacturing hub, German PMI data can also be a bellwether of the sector’s health in the broader continent. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.