Crypto analyst forecasts Bitcoin’s crash to $38k in 2026

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) trading near $89,260 at press time, one prominent crypto analyst has warned that the asset could fall as low as $38,000 in 2026, citing a bearish technical signal.

Specifically, respected on-chain cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez claims to have identified a Bitcoin death cross using the 10 and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA), per an X article published on January 1.

Within the same article, the analyst explained that, in the past, such a signal preceded a BTC crash of between 53% – as in March of 2020 – and 67% – like in September of 2014.

Simultaneously, Martinez explained he expects that a Bitcoin correction to between $38,000 and $50,000 – between 57% and 44% from the press time value – is likely.

Still, the trading expert also noted with his BTC prediction that, rather than a purely detrimental situation, such a crash would once again turn Bitcoin into an attractive long-term investment. The pullback would all but ensure that the cryptocurrency’s upside potential is significantly greater than the downward pressure.

Top commodity strategist forecasts massive 2026 Bitcoin crash

On the other hand, hopeful BTC traders might have to wait until at least 2027 to again witness a major rally. Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s senior commodity analyst, explained that he expects Bitcoin might crash toward $50,000 in 2026.

He also revealed that the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index – an index designed to serve as a benchmark for the cryptocurrency market – fell 19% in 2025, hinting at a more persistent downtrend.

Bitcoin just broke a decade-long cycle

Lastly, Bitcoin’s actual performance for the entire 2025 also indicates that the boom is, for the time being, over. Simultaneously, it showcased that the cryptocurrency market might be even harder to predict in the future.

For more than a decade, BTC generally followed a 4-year cycle that featured three years of climbing followed by a red year. This time, the pattern was broken already in its third year, as, despite an explosive start to 2025, Bitcoin closed approximately 8% down for the 12-month period.

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