Bitcoin just had its least volatile year ever — here’s what 2026 will bring

Bitcoin in 2025 underperformed against major assets like stocks and precious metals but still had its least volatile year, according to new research.

K33 Research said in a December report that “a year of waiting, distribution, pockets of hybris and despair” led the oldest cryptocurrency to end the year down by 3%, while gold, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 all finished on highs.

Still, Bitcoin has matured as an asset institutional investors get involved — mainly via US exchange-traded funds — and the huge price swings it experienced in previous cycles are now a thing of the past, the report said, adding that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle no longer applies.

“The trend is clear, Bitcoin’s volatility is trending lower year by year,” K33 Research said, noting that the cryptocurrency’s daily volatility in 2025 was 2.24% compared to 2.8% in 2024.

“We expect Bitcoin to set new all-time highs in 2026 and view the four-year cycle as a relic of the past,” the report continued.

Despite starting the year strong and hitting an all-time high of $126,080 in October, a number of factors depressed the price of Bitcoin in the last quarter, K33 Research said.

One of the biggest culprits, according to the report, was O.G. holders shifting coins: long-term investors — better known as “whales” — sold like never before in 2025, putting downward pressure on the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

This came even as US regulators took a friendlier approach to the digital asset industry, with pro-crypto President Donald Trump in the White House signing legislation for a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a stablecoin framework, among other laws.

The report said of the whale selling: “Realizing gains after more than 10,000% returns in a liquid market is natural. But the selling can also be interpreted as a reaction to Bitcoin’s new market structure and increasing integration into the established system.”

It added: “The redistribution of ownership has nonetheless been healthy. The massive selling pressure from old whales has been absorbed, and Bitcoin is now held by far more hands than before.”

Bitcoin was recently trading hands for $89,841 per coin, down nearly 7% over the past year.

But K33 Research said that expected lower interest rates this year, nation state adoption and more regulatory certainty will help propel Bitcoin’s price to new highs in 2026.

“Amidst continued integration with traditional markets, new capital is poised to outshine the effects of capital distribution from current holders,” the report’s researchers predicted.

“Bitcoin will outperform equity indices and gold in 2026.”

Mathew Di Salvo is a news correspondent with DL News. Got a tip? Email at mdisalvo@dlnews.com.