Wall Street analysts set Tesla stock price for the next 12 months

In the wake of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reporting weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2025, some on Wall Street are projecting potential downside for the stock in the year ahead.

For the quarter, the Texas-based company delivered 418,227 vehicles, falling short of Wall Street expectations of about 426,000. Production totaled 434,358 vehicles. Following the report, Tesla shares closed 2.59% lower.

Quarterly deliveries declined roughly 16% year over year from 495,570 vehicles, while production fell 5.5% from 459,445 units in the fourth quarter of 2024.

For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, down from 1.79 million in 2024, representing an 8.6% annual decline. Total 2025 production reached 1.65 million vehicles, slightly above deliveries but below prior-year levels. 

The figures reflect a challenging start to 2025, marked by boycotts tied to CEO Elon Musk’s political views and intensifying competition from lower-cost Chinese manufacturers.

Tesla stock ended the last session at $438, down more than 2.5% on the day, while remaining up over 6% year-over-year.

Tesla stock price prediction 

Now, Wall Street sentiment has turned more cautious. Based on forecasts from 32 analysts over at TipRanks, Tesla’s mean price target stands at $393.90, implying a downside of just over 10%. 

Of those ratings, 13 recommend buying the stock, 10 suggest holding, and nine advise selling, resulting in an overall consensus rating of ‘Hold.’ Price targets range widely, from a high of $600 to a low of $19.05. 

Among the analysts, Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco on January 2 reiterated an ‘Equalweight’ rating and maintained a $425 price target, citing a mixed but broadly in-line fourth-quarter performance. While deliveries missed broader sell-side expectations, they exceeded buy-side estimates, and energy storage deployments reached a record level. With shares trading above the firm’s target, Morgan Stanley sees limited near-term upside and remains neutral, emphasizing that investor focus is shifting toward execution on full self-driving and robotaxi initiatives heading into the first half of 2026.

Truist Securities analyst William Stein maintained a ‘Hold’ rating while trimming the price target to $439 from $444, citing weaker-than-expected deliveries and limited updates on near-term automotive initiatives. Although energy storage deployments exceeded expectations, Truist remains cautious given the stock’s valuation and slightly lowered EPS estimates, noting that long-term value creation is increasingly tied to progress in artificial intelligence and full self-driving technology.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives reiterated an ‘Outperform’ rating and maintained a $600 price target, arguing that fourth-quarter deliveries were better than feared. While deliveries came in slightly below consensus, they exceeded lower market expectations, and energy storage once again beat forecasts. Wedbush sees energy, artificial intelligence, and autonomy as the key drivers of upside, with Cybercab testing ongoing and autonomous production expected to begin in 2026, despite near-term regulatory and demand headwinds.