Macro Fears Cap Bitcoin Upside Despite 3-Week High

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin rose above $90,000, yet options data show traders are not comfortable with downside risk exposure.

• Bitcoin spot ETF outflows and low leverage demand suggest investors remain cautious about near-term gains.

Economic uncertainty caps Bitcoin price rebound

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $90,000 on Saturday, prompting traders to question whether there is enough momentum to reclaim the $95,000 level for the first time in seven weeks.

Even as the S&P 500 traded just 1.3% below its all-time high, investors grew concerned about worsening economic conditions, especially after electric-vehicle automaker Tesla (TSLA US) reported disappointing sales.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index futures failed to reclaim the 26,000 level, as the sector remains torn between optimism around artificial intelligence and risks tied to weaker US job market data.

According to Bloomberg, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries reached 418,227 units in the fourth quarter, down 15% from 495,570 a year earlier. Tesla shares fell 2.5% on Friday and remain 12.2% below their all-time high.

In contrast, moderate optimism emerged from China after shares of Chinese tech company Baidu (BIDU US) surged 15%. The company filed for an IPO with the Hong Kong stock exchange to spin off its artificial intelligence chip unit, Kunlunxin.

The tech sector has clearly underpinned Nasdaq’s 20% gains in 2025, but traders worry valuations have become excessively stretched.

BTC hits multi-week highs, but leverage stays cool

Demand for leveraged BTC bullish positions remained flat on Saturday, even as Bitcoin rebounded to its highest levels since Dec. 12.

Bitcoin’s price has remained confined to a relatively tight 6% range over the past 20 days, leaving investors increasingly anxious as the breakout above resistance continues to be delayed.

The Bitcoin futures basis rate stood below the neutral threshold on Friday, signalling a lack of confidence among bulls.

The current 4% annualized premium over spot markets reflects traders’ concerns that US import tariffs could weigh on the broader economy. On the positive side, the most recent retest of the $85,000 level on Dec. 19 was not sufficient to trigger broader bearish sentiment.

The lack of demand for leveraged bullish Bitcoin positions can also be linked to selling pressure in Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since Dec. 15, these products have recorded more than $900 million in net outflows.

Meanwhile, gold ETFs have posted seven consecutive weeks of net inflows, potentially signalling weaker confidence in US economic growth amid rising concerns over government fiscal conditions.

Skepticism lingers near $90,000, but panic is absent

To determine whether Bitcoin whales and market makers have turned bullish following the 3.2% gain over two days, it is necessary to examine activity in the BTC options market.

Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a premium on Saturday, as professional traders demanded higher compensation for downside price exposure.

Although the indicator remains within the neutral -6% to +6% range, it is still far from turning bullish, which is typically signalled by an inverse put-call skew. BTC derivatives point to lingering skepticism near the $90,000 level, though there are clearly no signs of excessive fear.

Related: No, whales are not accumulating massive amounts of Bitcoin: CryptoQuant

Inflation remains a major source of concern as the US government plans to roll out tax incentives to stimulate the economy. Bond futures markets are pricing just a 16% probability that interest rates will fall to 3.25% or lower by April, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

For now, Bitcoin derivatives traders do not expect further price gains, and confidence is likely to rebuild slowly following a month-long consolidation near $89,000.

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