Fed meeting minutes: Participants had different views on the inflation outlook, and only a few were willing to consider a rate cut in July

PANews reported on July 10 that according to Cailian Press, the minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that policymakers believed that there was "considerable uncertainty" about the potential inflationary impact of tariffs in terms of timing, scale and duration. They do not have a unified answer to how much impact tariffs will have on inflation, depending on how tariffs are transmitted to the economy and the progress of trade negotiations. Since the June meeting, Federal Reserve Board members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have raised the possibility of a rate cut this month based on mild inflation data. The minutes showed that a "few" officials expressed willingness to consider a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting. Most officials believed that a "modest reduction" in the policy rate this year might be appropriate. However, most officials still insisted that the stable economic performance of the United States gave them room to be patient in adjusting interest rates. In the minutes, policymakers evaluated economic growth as "robust" and believed that the unemployment rate was low. "Participants believed that although the uncertainty of inflation and economic prospects has decreased, adjustments to monetary policy should still remain prudent."

After the release of the meeting minutes, according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 64.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 4.5%.