Samsung Stock: Why Analysts Think “Samsung is Back” as Nvidia Deal Looms

TLDR

• Samsung Electronics will buy back $1.73 billion worth of its own shares between January 8 and April 7 for employee and executive compensation
• Samsung stock has gained $350 billion in market value since the start of last year and rose 4% on Wednesday
• Analysts predict Samsung’s 2026 earnings will more than double to a record $60 billion due to memory chip price increases
• The company is close to securing a deal to supply high-bandwidth memory chips to Nvidia
• Samsung’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to 10 times from over 25 times in 2023

Samsung Electronics announced Wednesday it will purchase 2.5 trillion won worth of its own shares through open market transactions. The buyback runs from January 8 through April 7.

The shares will fund a performance-linked compensation program for employees and executives. Samsung introduced this scheme in October 2025.

The move comes as Samsung stock climbs higher. Shares jumped 4% on Wednesday after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang discussed opportunities in AI data storage markets.

Samsung reports preliminary earnings Thursday. Analysts expect quarterly profits to more than double from last year.

The stock has added $350 billion in market value since early last year. This marks a turnaround after three years of lagging behind rival SK Hynix.

Catching Up in the AI Race

Samsung is reportedly nearing a deal to supply its latest high-bandwidth memory chips to Nvidia. This would be a major win for the company.

HBM chips power AI applications. SK Hynix gained market share by securing Nvidia contracts earlier. Samsung has been working to catch up.

The memory chip market is seeing tight supply. Demand for HBM has reduced production capacity for conventional memory products. Samsung dominates this segment.

Prices for legacy DRAM chips used in servers, PCs, and smartphones have climbed. Citigroup analyst Peter Lee anticipates “a severe supply shortage in commodity memory in 2026.”

Lee raised his price target for Samsung to 200,000 won. This is the highest on the street.

Record Profits Expected

Analysts polled by Bloomberg predict Samsung will earn about $60 billion in 2026. This would be a record high. The figure matches projections for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

Samsung’s market cap sits at $560 billion. TSMC is valued at more than double that amount.

Profit estimates for Samsung’s next 12 months have increased 115% since September. This beats the 88% rise for SK Hynix and 16% for TSMC.

The company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio now stands at 10 times. It peaked above 25 times in 2023.

Samsung showcased AI-enabled TVs and other products at CES in Las Vegas this week. The company also hopes to improve its foundry business, though it trails far behind TSMC in that segment.

Some analysts caution that expectations may be running high. Jung In Yun at Fibonacci Asset Management Global noted that while Samsung could outperform if it catches up in HBM, “expectations are already high, maybe too optimistic.”

The buyback program is part of Samsung’s October 2025 compensation initiative. Shares will be acquired through purchases on the stock market over the three-month period.

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