EUR/USD consolidates as factory orders surprise to the upside – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD) as it consolidates its recent pullback within the flat range from June, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

ECB guidance neutral as markets await Lane’s speech

“German factory orders have come in well above expectations for the month of November, delivering an unexpectedly strong 5.6% m/m print. A modest contraction had been expected, and the stronger data appear to be offering the EUR some stability following softer inflation data released earlier this week.”

“The ECB’s policy guidance remains broadly neutral while leaning toward higher rates over the medium-term. ECB Chief Economist Lane is scheduled to speak on Friday and his comments should provide some near-term direction for the EUR. Fundamentally, spreads remain supportive however sentiment appears to be dominating as we note the EUR’s current tight correlation to risk reversals and the softened premium for protection against upside risk.”

“The EUR appears to be attempting stabilization in the mid/upper-1.16s, just above the 50 day MA at 1.1649. The range since June has been flat, and roughly bound between 1.14 and 1.18. The RSI is marginally bearish but still hovering close to the neutral level at 50, having just crossed the threshold over the past couple of sessions. We are neutral absent a break of the 50 day MA and look to a near-term range between 1.1650 and 1.1750.”