Bitcoin surges past $118K all-time high without overheating as on-chain data signals more upside

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $118,399 early on July 11 during Asian trading hours, marking another major milestone in the ongoing bull market.

Yet, unlike past euphoric peaks, this breakout appears fundamentally calmer and more structurally sound. In a June 11 analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Avocado Onchain noted that several important indicators point to the market not being overheated. 

The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s (BTC) market value to its realized value, currently stands at 2.2. That’s well below the overheated levels of 2.7 seen during the March and December 2024 highs, pointing to relatively moderate speculation.

There’s also been a noticeable shift in investor behavior. During earlier bull market tops, short-term holders, wallets that held BTC for less than a month, made up around 30% of the market. Today, that number has dropped to 15%. Fewer short-term players often means less volatility and a lower risk of sudden selloffs.

Similar conclusions can be drawn from other indicators. There appears to be little sell pressure based on the lack of a significant spike in the Short-Term Holder SOPR, which measures profit-taking among recent buyers. 

Meanwhile, miners, often early sellers during market tops, are staying relatively quiet. The Miner Position Index has been drifting lower, and some mining firms appear to be accumulating rather than selling.

Retail investors are also missing from the picture, according to another CryptoQuant analysis. Their “Spot Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency Surge” metric remains in the gray zone, a signal that retail traders have yet to re-enter the market.

Retail frenzy has historically been associated with late-stage bull market peaks. Given that institutions and exchange-traded funds are still driving the trend, the current absence might indicate that the top is still a long way off. 

Looking ahead, short-term support levels may offer clues about where the market heads next. The $106,500 and $101,200 zones, which represent the average cost basis for holders who purchased Bitcoin in the previous one to three months, are being watched by analysts.

The upward trend may continue if Bitcoin maintains its position above those levels. A drop below could trigger short-term selling but might also bring in new buyers.

Overall, this rally appears to be more sustainable than previous ones. Bitcoin may have more room to rise without the chaos that frequently occurs near the top, as long as there is steady institutional interest, calm on-chain signals, and retail still largely on the sidelines.