USD/CNH stays below 7.0000 – BBH

USD/CNH remains under 7.0000 as China’s December inflation data showed headline CPI rising to 0.8% y/y, the highest since February 2023, while core CPI stayed at 1.2% for a third consecutive month, and PPI printed -1.9%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressure, BBH FX analysts report.

Currency appreciation could support Chinese consumer spending

“USD/CNH is holding under 7.0000. China’s December CPI matched consensus. Headline inflation quickened to 0.8% y/y (the highest since February 2023) vs. 0.7% in November driven by a rise in food prices while core CPI remained at 1.2% y/y for a third straight month. PPI printed at -1.9% y/y (consensus: -2.0%) vs. -2.2% in November and still suggests that deflationary pressure remains high.”

“China’s benign inflation backdrop continues to suggest that consumption spending is too weak. In our view, a continued appreciation in China’s currency could help the country shift its growth model towards consumer spending by boosting disposable income through cheaper imports. Bottom line: USD/CNH downtrend is intact.”