Risk of closing below 1.1615 remains intact – UOB Group

Euro (EUR) must break and close below 1.1615 before a move to 1.1585 can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Above the 1.1690 resistance, 1.1615 may be out of reach

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Thursday, we expected EUR to test 1.1650. After EUR fell to 1.1642, we indicated on Friday that ‘the oversold EUR decline could test 1.1635 before a more sustained recovery is likely’. We also highlighted that ‘the next support at 1.1615 is likely out of reach’. EUR then dropped to a low of 1.1617, but while conditions remain oversold, there is no sign of recovery. That said, instead of continuing to decline, EUR is more likely to consolidate today, probably between 1.1615 and 1.1665.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have maintained a negative EUR view since early last week. Last Friday (09 Jan, spot at 1.1660), we stated that ‘the bias for EUR remains on the downside, but it remains to be seen if 1.1615 will come into view’. EUR subsequently dropped to a low of 1.1617. While the improving downward momentum suggests that a break below 1.1615 would not be surprising, EUR must close below this level before a move to 1.1585 can be expected. The likelihood of EUR closing below 1.1615 will remain intact as long as the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1690 (level was at 1.1710 last Friday) is not breached.”