Viewpoint: Bitcoin is still likely to hit new highs in the medium term, but we need to be wary of short-term momentum exhaustion

PANews reported on July 30th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin remains firmly locked in a narrow range, struggling to break through the $120,000 mark, while sustained buying interest around $116,000 continues to provide support. Ethereum's upward momentum appears to be waning as it approaches the psychological resistance level of $4,000, with momentum indicators becoming increasingly neutral. From a structural perspective, continued institutional inflows and favorable regulatory developments suggest that Bitcoin remains likely to reach new highs in the medium term. Institutional investors such as Strategy and SharpLink Gaming are continuously raising funds to purchase Bitcoin, highlighting their long-term confidence in the asset. However, caution remains warranted. Price action has failed to materially respond to a series of positive news, including the passage of pro-cryptocurrency regulations in the United States and positive developments in spot and derivatives ETFs. Historically, market stagnation amidst a flurry of positive news often signals a weakening of short-term momentum. The lack of follow-through on positive news is a typical late-cycle market symptom.

At the macro level, overcrowded short positions in the US dollar pose a potential risk. CFTC data shows traders are heavily shorting the dollar against the yen, with the US dollar having depreciated 10% this year. The market is increasingly vulnerable to short-covering in the US dollar, which could trigger a synchronized sell-off in risky assets such as equities, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the tariff war continues. Attention now turns to upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly US inflation and employment data, which will be crucial in determining the direction of the third quarter. As the impact of tariffs gradually feeds into corporate profit margins and consumer prices, the third quarter could become a key turning point. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's movements. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. Policymakers are likely to emphasize data dependence ahead of the key September meeting, at which point the likelihood of a rate cut remains uncertain.