CICC: The Federal Reserve will remain cautious in its decision to cut interest rates and will not cut interest rates significantly

PANews reported on August 19th that a CICC research report indicated that the market has recently significantly increased its pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut, and divisions within the Fed have intensified, with some favoring a rate cut and others advocating a wait-and-see approach. US President Trump, Treasury Secretary Benson, and others are also pressuring the Fed, calling for a significant rate cut. However, we believe that current conditions do not support a significant rate cut. The greatest risk facing the US currently is quasi-stagflation, and rate cuts cannot resolve this dilemma. Monetary policy should remain centered on stabilizing inflation (expectations), rather than pursuing short-term growth or succumbing to political pressure. Therefore, we believe the Fed will remain cautious in its decision-making on rate cuts and will refrain from significant easing. The coexistence of slowing employment and sticky inflation significantly increases the uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy path.