Has Bitcoin (BTC), Which Fell to $60,000, Hit Bottom? Analyst Says “No!” and Points to 2022!
Bitcoin, which recovered to levels around $96,000 in mid-January, experienced a short-lived rise. Having been declining since January 15th, BTC most recently fell to the $60,000 level last week.
While a rapid recovery from $60,000 has led to predictions of a bottom, one analyst said that BTC has not yet reached a true bottom and further declines are possible.
According to Greg Magadini, Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, who spoke to Coindesk, Bitcoin has not yet reached the capitulation stage and may experience further declines.
Magadini, pointing to the derivatives market as the reason, stated that historically, BTC has bottomed out when the difference between futures and spot prices widened significantly.
Citing 2022 as an example, the analyst stated that during the 2022 bear market, the 90-day futures contract traded at a 9% discount compared to the spot price.
Because when futures contracts trade at a significant premium compared to spot prices, it signals bullish optimism among investors, while conversely, when they trade at a large discount, it indicates downward pressure and a decline.
At this point, the analyst noted that there hasn’t been a significant change in the difference between futures and spot prices recently. Magadini stated that the current 90-day basis difference remains around 4%, and warned that a further drop in BTC price could occur if futures investors begin selling their positions.
“Compare the current situation to the end of the 2022 bear market. Back then, 90-day futures traded at a 9% discount to the spot Bitcoin price. Therefore, if history repeats itself, it is predicted that Bitcoin futures will continue to trade at a large discount to the spot price if futures investors start selling, and the BTC price could experience another decline.”
*This is not investment advice.
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