According to PANews on August 27, regarding the recent discussion on prediction markets, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated: "In a token vote, if you cast the wrong vote, you will not be punished unless you are personally responsible for the vote's failure, which is very unlikely. In a prediction market, if you cast the wrong vote, you will lose money; and if you cast the wrong vote while placing a large bet, you will suffer heavy losses. Personally, I believe that the probabilities given by prediction markets are generally more accurate than the probabilities I believe in based on the (professional or social media) atmosphere. They actually help me stay calm and know not to overestimate things (but also know when something truly important will happen)." Earlier news , Vitalik said that if the prediction market provides interest, it will drive trading volume growth and a large number of hedging use cases will emerge.According to PANews on August 27, regarding the recent discussion on prediction markets, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated: "In a token vote, if you cast the wrong vote, you will not be punished unless you are personally responsible for the vote's failure, which is very unlikely. In a prediction market, if you cast the wrong vote, you will lose money; and if you cast the wrong vote while placing a large bet, you will suffer heavy losses. Personally, I believe that the probabilities given by prediction markets are generally more accurate than the probabilities I believe in based on the (professional or social media) atmosphere. They actually help me stay calm and know not to overestimate things (but also know when something truly important will happen)." Earlier news , Vitalik said that if the prediction market provides interest, it will drive trading volume growth and a large number of hedging use cases will emerge.

Vitalik: The probabilities given by the prediction market are usually more accurate than the judgments formed by media influence

2025/08/27 10:34
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According to PANews on August 27, regarding the recent discussion on prediction markets, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated: "In a token vote, if you cast the wrong vote, you will not be punished unless you are personally responsible for the vote's failure, which is very unlikely. In a prediction market, if you cast the wrong vote, you will lose money; and if you cast the wrong vote while placing a large bet, you will suffer heavy losses. Personally, I believe that the probabilities given by prediction markets are generally more accurate than the probabilities I believe in based on the (professional or social media) atmosphere. They actually help me stay calm and know not to overestimate things (but also know when something truly important will happen)."

Earlier news , Vitalik said that if the prediction market provides interest, it will drive trading volume growth and a large number of hedging use cases will emerge.

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