OSL Trading Hour: BTC may rise to $120,000, $3 billion options are about to expire

1. Market observation

Keywords: BTC, ETF, ETH

The cryptocurrency market is reaching a critical moment, and market volatility may increase as $3 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are about to expire. Among them, $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire on December 6, which has further heated up the market tension.

Bitcoin recently broke through the important $100,000 mark, and despite the sharp price fluctuations, it still aroused investors' enthusiasm. Market analysts predict that after experiencing fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin may climb to $120,000, pull back to $92,000, and finally stabilize in the $100,000 range. It is worth noting that since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, its holdings have increased significantly. This innovative product is reshaping the landscape of Bitcoin and even the entire cryptocurrency market.

The participation of institutional investors continues to increase. Florida plans to allocate $1.85 billion from the state pension fund to invest in Bitcoin, showing the recognition of traditional financial institutions for crypto assets. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor even called on the United States to abandon gold and support Bitcoin. This view seems to have received some degree of official recognition - the U.S. Treasury Department has officially called Bitcoin "digital gold", affirming its status as a store of value and recognizing the $2.3 trillion market value of cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) markets were also active, with its price breaking through the $4,000 mark for the first time since March. This breakthrough was mainly due to record ETF inflows and continued growth in institutional investment interest. Multiple positive on-chain indicators also indicate that Ethereum may see significant price fluctuations.

The latest report from the U.S. Treasury Department further emphasizes Bitcoin's centrality in the DeFi market and its rapid growth. Despite occasional market pullbacks, strong demand and record network activity continue to support Bitcoin's price level close to $100,000. The report specifically points out that the rapid development of digital assets from extremely low levels highlights the importance of this emerging asset class.

2. Key data (as of 11:42 HKT on December 9)

• S&P 500: 6,090.27 (+27.68% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,859.77 points (+32.30% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.151% (+27.01 basis points this year)

• US dollar index: 106.058 (+4.71% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $99,869.65 (+136.29% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $48.53 billion

• Ethereum: $3,963.28 (+73.72% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $22.51 billion

3. ETF flows (December 6 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$376.6 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$83.8 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

Non-farm payrolls (09:30 p.m., December 6)

• Actual: 227,000 / Previous: 36,000 / Expected: 200,000

Unemployment rate (09:30 p.m., December 6)

• Actual: 4.2% / Previous: 4.1% / Expected: 4.2%

Core inflation annual rate (09:30 p.m., December 11)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 3.3% / Expected: 3.3%

Annual inflation rate (09:30 p.m., December 11)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 2.6% / Expected: 2.7%

PPI monthly rate (09:30 p.m., December 12)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.2% / Expected: 0.3%

5. Hot News

• Weekly preview | MagicEden, Movement and other projects will conduct token TGE; Microsoft will review the proposal to "evaluate investment in Bitcoin"

• Sushi announces 2025 plan: plans to launch multiple products including Solana on-chain trading platform Wara, on-chain perpetual DEX platform Susa, etc.

• Zilliqa is back online after hours of downtime

• Magic Eden CEO says he and his company plan to lock up their ME token holdings for 18 months

• Binance responds to USUAL and ACX market value data errors: We have contacted the project party to update CMC data and will improve the information verification process

• US think tank National Center for Public Policy Research proposes to Amazon to establish a Bitcoin Treasury

• Cardano Foundation X account has been hacked and stolen

• Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker information for the fifth consecutive week, possibly hinting at another increase in BTC holdings

• APT, ADA, ENA and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts next week, of which APT unlocks about $160 million

• STRK staking has temporarily exceeded the critical point of centralization risk, and the staking ratio of the two head validators has reached 54%

• Pudgy Penguins sub-series Lil Pudgys floor price breaks through 2.3 ETH and continues to hit new highs

• David Sacks forwards his ten views on Bitcoin: Buy Bitcoin in 2013; PayPal is fulfilling its original vision of creating a new world currency

• People's Court Daily: Virtual currency has property attributes, and stealing virtual currency constitutes theft

• Farcaster plans to launch new data layer Snapchain in Q1 next year

• UK FCA issues warning to Pump.fun for providing financial services or products without permission

• ORA launches Season 1 airdrop, 10% of total token supply allocated to points program participants

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